Actor Awards Upset Scrambles 2026 Oscar Race for Best Picture

LOS ANGELES (Azat TV) – The 2026 Academy Awards race has been dramatically reshaped following significant upsets at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) on Sunday, March 1. Ryan Coogler’s genre blockbuster, ‘Sinners,’ secured the prize for best cast, while Michael B. Jordan unexpectedly took home the best actor award, challenging long-held assumptions about the Best Picture and Best Actor Oscar categories just as final voting for the Academy Awards is underway.

For months, the film ‘One Battle After Another’ had dominated the awards circuit, collecting top honors at the Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globe Awards, Directors Guild Awards, BAFTA Awards, and Producers Guild Awards. However, the Actor Awards, voted on by the roughly 160,000 members of SAG-AFTRA, delivered a crucial late-stage blow to its presumed frontrunner status. ‘Sinners,’ which already holds a record-breaking 16 Oscar nominations, emerged as a potent challenger, potentially benefiting from the Academy’s preferential ballot system and a growing weariness among some voters with ‘One Battle After Another’s consistent wins, according to analysis by The Hollywood Reporter.

Michael B. Jordan’s Best Actor Upset

The most surprising outcome of the night was Michael B. Jordan’s win for best actor in ‘Sinners,’ unseating Timothée Chalamet, who was widely considered the frontrunner for his role in ‘Marty Supreme.’ Chalamet’s presumed path to an Oscar had already been questioned at the BAFTA Awards, and his loss at the Actor Awards further complicates the race. Industry observers point to several factors that may be impacting Chalamet’s campaign: some find his character in ‘Marty Supreme’ off-putting, others have noted his confident demeanor on the awards circuit, and there’s a sentiment that at 30, he has many future opportunities, unlike some of his older competitors. Furthermore, ‘Marty Supreme’ itself is not gaining broad traction and is unlikely to win in other Oscar categories, a factor that historically disadvantages Best Actor winners.

In contrast, Michael B. Jordan’s performance, portraying twins, has garnered widespread support within a film that resonates broadly. Jordan has maintained an understated campaign presence and reportedly gained sympathy and admiration following an incident at the recent BAFTA Awards. Crucially, his Actor Award win occurred precisely in the middle of the final Oscar voting period, which ran from February 26 to March 5, potentially signaling to Academy members that a vote for him could genuinely influence the outcome. This timing could sway undecided voters who might have otherwise considered a Chalamet win a foregone conclusion.

Divergent Voting Bodies and Historical Trends

It is important to note the distinct differences between the Actor Awards and the Oscars voting bodies. SAG-AFTRA members, predominantly U.S.-based actors, select Actor Award winners, while the Academy comprises approximately 11,000 film industry professionals from various sectors globally, with 20 percent based outside the U.S. Historically, the two groups do not always align, particularly for their top film prizes. The Actor Awards’ best cast winner has only overlapped with the Best Picture Oscar winner in 15 of 31 years. However, several Best Picture Oscar winners considered ‘underdogs’ (such as ‘Shakespeare in Love,’ ‘Crash,’ ‘Spotlight,’ ‘Parasite,’ and ‘CODA’) first won the Best Cast Actor Award, offering a glimmer of hope for ‘Sinners,’ as reported by The Los Angeles Times.

For individual acting categories, SAG-AFTRA has a stronger track record of predicting Oscar winners. Last year, however, Chalamet won the Actor Award for ‘A Complete Unknown’ but lost the Oscar, demonstrating that upsets are possible. This year, Jessie Buckley’s win for female actor in a leading role for ‘Hamnet’ at the Actor Awards is widely seen as a strong indicator for her to repeat at the Oscars, with many considering her a definitive frontrunner.

Supporting Categories See Unexpected Victories

In the supporting acting categories, the Actor Awards also delivered surprises. The best supporting actress award went to Amy Madigan for ‘Weapons,’ despite ‘Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku (the BAFTA winner) and ‘One Battle After Another’s Teyana Taylor (the Golden Globe winner) being strong contenders. A potential concern for Madigan’s Oscar chances is that ‘Weapons’ is not nominated for Best Picture, a factor that can impact coattail voting. However, Madigan’s extensive career, long-standing industry respect, and prior Oscar nomination could give her an edge over newer talents, according to Billboard.

For best supporting actor, Sean Penn of ‘One Battle After Another’ secured the Actor Award, mirroring his recent BAFTA win. This occurred despite his minimal campaigning and competing against his co-star, Benicio Del Toro. Penn, a two-time Oscar winner, is considered an all-time great. Yet, two septuagenarian veterans, Stellan Skarsgård (‘Sentimental Value’) and Delroy Lindo (‘Sinners’), both first-time Oscar nominees not recognized by the Actor Awards, remain strong contenders. Skarsgård could benefit from the Academy’s international vote, while Lindo might ride the wave of support for ‘Sinners,’ making this a closely watched race.

The Actor Awards, strategically timed during the final Oscar voting window, have undeniably injected a fresh layer of unpredictability into the 2026 Academy Awards, forcing Academy members to reconsider presumed outcomes and potentially rewarding late-breaking momentum over season-long dominance.