Quick Read
- Oklahoma beat Alabama 23-21 in their regular season meeting, capitalizing on three turnovers.
- Alabama enters the CFP first round as a slight underdog, but is healthier and has key players returning.
- Oklahoma has never won a CFP game or beaten Alabama twice in one season.
- Both offenses have struggled; defenses are expected to dominate.
- Winner advances to face No. 1 Indiana at the Rose Bowl.
Alabama vs Oklahoma: A Rematch Loaded with High Stakes
On Friday, December 19, 2025, college football fans across the country will be glued to their screens as No. 9 Alabama faces No. 8 Oklahoma in the first round of the College Football Playoff (CFP). The matchup, set for 8 p.m. ET at Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma, is more than just a contest between two storied programs—it’s a rematch with a recent history and a ticket to the Rose Bowl against No. 1 Indiana on the line.
Recent History: Turnovers and Redemption
The intrigue surrounding this clash is fueled by their November meeting, where Oklahoma stunned Alabama 23-21 in Tuscaloosa. Despite nearly doubling the Sooners’ offensive output (406 to 212 yards), Alabama couldn’t overcome three costly turnovers, including a pick-six, and lost its first home game under coach Kalen DeBoer. It was a rare moment for the Crimson Tide, whose defense otherwise stifled the Oklahoma offense, but whose mistakes proved fatal.
Now, the narrative shifts: Can Alabama, healthier and more prepared, avoid a repeat? Or will Oklahoma, riding a wave of defensive opportunism, make history by beating the Tide twice in one season—a feat never accomplished before?
Odds and Expert Predictions: Divided Opinions
According to BetMGM (as cited by Tuscaloosa News), the odds are razor-thin: Alabama sits at -105 on the moneyline, with a spread of +1, and an over/under of 40.5 points—the lowest total in CFP history. These numbers reflect the uncertainty and the expectation of a defensive struggle. Alabama is a slight underdog, a rare position for the perennial powerhouse.
Expert predictions from outlets like USA TODAY and CBSSports are split. Some see Oklahoma’s defense—ranked top-10 nationally—continuing to generate turnovers and stifling Alabama’s offense, which has struggled to find rhythm, particularly in the running game. Others believe the Crimson Tide, now healthier with key players like running back Jam Miller returning, will fix their mistakes and prevail. Notably, SportsLine’s computer simulations also favor Alabama, citing their superior quarterback play and improved health.
Writers from The Oklahoman and Tuscaloosa News offered varied scores: Oklahoma 20-14, Alabama 21-17, Oklahoma 20-13, Alabama 21-16, and Oklahoma 17-13. The common thread is low scoring, reflecting both teams’ offensive struggles and defensive strengths.
Key Storylines: Injuries, Offenses, and History
Both squads enter with baggage. Alabama, depleted in the SEC Championship Game two weeks ago, finished with minus-3 rushing yards against Georgia, missing two of their top three running backs. The return of Jam Miller offers hope, but he hasn’t surpassed 100 rushing yards since October 4. Alabama’s 116.2 rushing yards per game are the lowest among CFP teams.
Oklahoma’s offense faces its own issues, ranking lowest in the playoff field and averaging just 26.4 points per game—remarkably low for a 10-win team. The Sooners haven’t scored more than two offensive touchdowns in a game since late October. They’ve relied on defensive heroics and timely turnovers to edge ranked opponents like Tennessee, Missouri, and Alabama.
Defensively, Alabama is likely without end LT Overton for a second straight game due to illness. Overton, second on the team in sacks, is a significant absence as the Tide look to pressure Oklahoma’s quarterback.
The historical stakes add another layer. Oklahoma is 0-4 all-time in CFP games and has never defeated Alabama twice in the same season. For the Sooners, a win would be a breakthrough. For Alabama, it’s a chance to restore pride and keep their championship hopes alive.
How to Watch and What to Expect
The game will be broadcast on ESPN and streamed live on Fubo, starting at 8 p.m. ET. For those looking to bet, the advice from CBSSports and Tuscaloosa News is caution: betting lines are tight, and the total is historically low, reflecting the defensive prowess and offensive inconsistency of both teams.
Fans should expect a tense, closely contested affair. Special teams could be a deciding factor, as Oklahoma is regarded as one of the best in that department, comparable to Georgia. In a matchup where points may be scarce, a single big play—a turnover, a punt return, or a missed field goal—could tip the scales.
Looking Ahead: The Winner’s Road
Whoever emerges victorious will advance to the CFP quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl on January 1 to face No. 1 Indiana. For Alabama, it’s about redemption and maintaining their status among college football’s elite. For Oklahoma, it’s a shot at rewriting history and finally claiming their first playoff win.
The stakes couldn’t be higher. Both teams are hungry, but only one will punch their ticket to Pasadena.
In a season defined by razor-thin margins and unexpected twists, the Alabama-Oklahoma rematch stands as a microcosm of college football’s unpredictable drama. With defenses primed and offenses searching for answers, Friday’s showdown is likely to hinge on discipline, health, and the ability to seize fleeting opportunities. For fans and analysts alike, the only certainty is uncertainty itself.