Quick Read
- Ali Larijani has emerged as the de facto wartime leader, overriding President Pezeshkian’s diplomatic overtures to Gulf states.
- The Iranian leadership is preparing for the succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader, solidifying the IRGC’s influence.
- Iran’s security establishment has vowed to continue strikes against regional countries hosting U.S. military assets despite domestic damage.
TEHRAN (Azat TV) – As Iran faces a critical leadership transition following the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, top security official Ali Larijani has effectively sidelined the civilian government, cementing his role as the country’s de facto wartime leader. His emergence comes amid a widening rift between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the presidency, as the nation grapples with the fallout of sustained regional conflict.
Larijani Rejects Diplomatic Overtures
The tension surfaced publicly this weekend after President Masoud Pezeshkian attempted to de-escalate hostilities with neighboring Gulf states. Following mediation efforts by Russia, Pezeshkian issued a public apology for recent Iranian strikes on regional infrastructure, signaling a potential shift toward diplomacy. However, the overture was immediately and sharply rebuked by the security establishment.
Ali Larijani, acting as a key pillar in the temporary tripartite leadership council, countered the president’s statement on national television. He declared that Iran would not cease retaliatory operations against countries hosting American military bases. Larijani’s intervention was swift, forcing a public reversal from the president’s office within 24 hours. The episode underscored the reality that in Iran’s current wartime state, strategic decisions are dictated by the IRGC rather than the formal civilian cabinet, according to reports from The Times.
The Rise of the Securitized State
The push to solidify control by the security apparatus comes as the regime prepares to appoint Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the late Supreme Leader, as the next “guardian jurist.” This transition, while controversial due to the hereditary nature of the appointment—a practice the 1979 revolution originally sought to abolish—is viewed by observers as a move to ensure continuity for the IRGC’s grip on power.
The power struggle highlights a deep-seated division of labor within the Iranian regime, described by analysts as a system of two parallel states. While the civilian government manages the appearance of administration, the securitized “deep state” exercises absolute authority over national security and military operations. With over 10,000 civilian buildings reportedly damaged inside Iran due to the ongoing conflict, the regime is prioritizing military resistance over international reconciliation, as noted by The Guardian.
A Militarized Path Forward
The military strategy remains uncompromising. Sources confirm that Iran has directed approximately 60% of its recent ballistic missile and drone strikes toward Gulf states, viewing their geography as facilitative to U.S. operations. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi defended these actions, asserting that Iran is engaged in a defensive conflict against American installations in the region. As the leadership council moves toward finalizing the succession, Larijani’s assertive posture suggests that the regime has no intention of softening its stance against the West or its regional neighbors.
The friction between Pezeshkian’s diplomatic gestures and Larijani’s militant rhetoric confirms that the formal Iranian presidency currently functions as a subordinate entity, with the IRGC utilizing the interregnum to accelerate a shift toward an overtly militarized governance model.