Azerbaijan’s Grievances Over EU Mission in Armenia Stem from Lost Leverage: Swedish MP Arin Karapet
Recent criticisms from Azerbaijan regarding the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in Armenia are rooted in Baku’s frustration over losing its leverage to dictate terms to Yerevan, according to Arin Karapet, a Swedish Member of Parliament of Armenian origin. In a statement to “Armenpress,” Karapet highlighted that the EU’s presence on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border is perceived by Baku as an impediment to its ability to unilaterally impose its agenda.
Azerbaijan’s Discontent: Losing the Upper Hand
Arin Karapet argues that Azerbaijan’s dissatisfaction with the EUMM is directly linked to the mission’s effectiveness in leveling the playing field. Prior to the mission’s deployment, Azerbaijan arguably held a significant advantage, particularly in border areas, which it could leverage to pressure Armenia. The presence of EU monitors, however, changes this dynamic.
- Reduced Border Leverage: The EUMM’s presence acts as an international observation mechanism, deterring unilateral actions and making it more difficult for either side to initiate provocations or ceasefire violations without international scrutiny.
- Transparency and Accountability: With EU monitors on the ground, any attempts to escalate tensions or violate agreements are more likely to be documented and reported to the international community, increasing transparency and accountability.
- Shifting Perceptions of Power Dynamics: The mission signals international interest and engagement in the region, potentially diluting Azerbaijan’s perceived regional dominance and its ability to act without external oversight.
Armenia’s Perspective: Exposing Ceasefire Violations
From Armenia’s perspective, the EU monitoring mission is crucial for several reasons, Karapet noted. It provides an objective international presence that can verify and report on the situation at the border, something Yerevan has long advocated for.
- International Visibility: The EUMM allows Armenia to demonstrate to the international community the reality of the situation on the ground, particularly regarding ceasefire violations and border incidents.
- Deterrence and Stability: While not a peacekeeping force, the mission’s presence can have a deterrent effect on potential escalations, contributing to greater stability along the border.
- Supporting Diplomatic Efforts: The mission’s reports and assessments can provide valuable information for diplomatic efforts aimed at resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict through negotiation and dialogue.
EU Mission’s Role in Regional Stability
The EU Monitoring Mission in Armenia was established in February 2023 following increased tensions along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. Its mandate is to contribute to stability, build confidence, and ensure a secure environment in the conflict-affected areas. The mission’s unarmed observers patrol the border areas and report on the situation, contributing to a more informed international understanding of the dynamics at play.
While Azerbaijan has consistently criticized the EUMM, viewing it as biased and ineffective, the mission has been welcomed by Armenia and the EU member states. The EU has reiterated that the mission operates on the Armenian side of the international border with Azerbaijan, at the request of Armenia, and with the consent of Azerbaijan to operate on the Armenian side, emphasizing its impartial and observational nature.
A Shift in Regional Dynamics
Arin Karapet’s analysis underscores a key aspect of the Armenia-Azerbaijan dynamic: the role of international presence in altering power balances. Azerbaijan’s criticisms of the EU monitoring mission can be interpreted as a reaction to the perceived loss of its ability to unilaterally dictate terms to Armenia. For Armenia, the mission represents a valuable tool for enhancing transparency, promoting stability, and highlighting its position on the international stage. As the EUMM continues its operations, its impact on regional dynamics and the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process will remain a subject of close observation and debate.
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