Cowboys vs Raiders Prediction: Odds, Analysis & Key Picks for Monday Night Football

Cowboys vs Raiders: The Stakes in Week 11

The lights of Allegiant Stadium will shine on two teams in desperate need of a win. The Dallas Cowboys (3-5-1) and Las Vegas Raiders (2-7) meet on Monday Night Football, each hoping to turn the tide of a season that’s slipping away. The Cowboys, on a two-game losing streak and struggling on the road (just 1-4 away from home), face a Raiders squad that’s lost three straight and has just one win at home this year. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET, with the game broadcast live on ABC/ESPN.

Breaking Down the Odds and Trends

Sportsbooks have the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites, with a moneyline of -185, while the Raiders are +155 underdogs. The over/under sits at 50.5 points (Action Network). Notably, Dallas has won three of the last four meetings, but Las Vegas leads the all-time series 7-6 (CBS Sports).

Both teams enter Week 11 after tough losses: Dallas fell to Arizona 27-17, and Las Vegas managed just seven points in a defeat to Denver. For the Cowboys, offense has been their saving grace, ranking 11th in DVOA, fifth in EPA per Play, and eighth in Success Rate. Dak Prescott, with 2,319 passing yards and 17 touchdowns, is the engine, and his connection with wideout George Pickens (764 yards, six TDs) remains potent. The run game, under new OC Klayton Adams, has exceeded expectations.

On the other side, the Raiders’ defense has outperformed preseason expectations, now ranked above league average in DVOA. But the offense, under new leadership, is floundering—30th in DVOA and EPA per Play. Geno Smith, a veteran who’s typically reliable indoors, has struggled behind an offensive line that’s been decimated by injuries, most notably the loss of Kolton Miller and Jackson Powers-Johnson. Rookie running back Ashton Jeanty has found little room to operate, and Vegas ranks dead last in Line Yards and Rush Efficiency.

Key Matchups and Player Props

Expert picks from Sports Illustrated and CBS Sports highlight some critical individual battles:

• Ashton Jeanty (Raiders, RB): Jeanty’s receiving yards prop is set at 16.5, with experts favoring the over. He’s seen a surge in targets recently, and Dallas’ defense has allowed the second-most receiving yards to opposing running backs (45.7 per game). Given the Raiders’ struggles on the ground and pressure on Smith, expect plenty of dump-offs to Jeanty.
• Brock Bowers (Raiders, TE): Bowers is the clear No. 1 target in the passing game, and with Dallas ranked 30th in EPA/Pass, he’s primed for a bounce-back after a quiet Week 10. His prop line is set at 70.5 yards, and he’s already had multiple 100-yard games this season.
• CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys, WR): Despite missing time with an ankle injury, Lamb has cleared 6.5 receptions in four of five completed games. Prescott will lean heavily on Lamb against a Raiders secondary that’s struggled against the pass.

Dallas’ defensive reinforcements—Logan Wilson and Quinnen Williams—could help shore up a porous front, while getting Overshown back from injury boosts linebacker depth. Still, the secondary remains vulnerable, and the defensive scheme hasn’t shown much creativity.

Betting Analysis: Spread, Total, and X-Factors

At a spread above a field goal, many analysts see value in the Raiders keeping it close at home. Iain MacMillan from SI argues that Las Vegas’ defense is better than its reputation and that the Cowboys’ own defensive woes prevent them from pulling away. The Raiders’ net yards per play at home (+0.2) suggest they can compete, especially if Bowers and Jeanty exploit mismatches.

From a totals perspective, the consensus leans under, given the Raiders’ tendency to slow games and Dallas’ improved pressure up front. But with explosive playmakers on both sides, the risk of a shootout lingers.

As for the moneyline, Dallas remains the favorite, but expert Zack Cimini at SportsLine notes a critical X-factor—Las Vegas’ ability to generate turnovers and limit big plays, which could tilt the outcome if Prescott is pressured into mistakes.

What to Watch: Storylines for Monday Night

This game isn’t just about numbers—it’s about two franchises searching for answers. For Dallas, the question is whether a strong offense can overcome defensive vulnerabilities, especially on the road. For Las Vegas, it’s about whether incremental defensive gains and a few dynamic weapons can compensate for an anemic offense and battered line.

Fans will watch to see if Prescott and Lamb’s chemistry can crack the Raiders’ conservative coverage schemes, or if Jeanty and Bowers can take advantage of Dallas’ weak spots in the middle of the field. The first quarter will be telling: if the Cowboys start fast, the Raiders may struggle to keep pace. But if Las Vegas can grind out possessions and win the turnover battle, this could be closer than the odds suggest.

With both teams still clinging to playoff hopes, every snap will be magnified. Mistakes could be costly; big plays could swing momentum. In a season of missed opportunities, Monday night offers a chance for redemption—if only for a week.

Assessment: While the Cowboys’ offensive firepower gives them an edge, their defensive frailties keep the door open for a Raiders upset. Expect a tightly contested game where turnovers and third-down efficiency prove decisive. The best value lies in player props—especially Jeanty and Bowers—while the spread favors a cautious lean toward the home underdog. Ultimately, this matchup is a litmus test for both teams’ resilience and adaptability under pressure.