Quick Read
- U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw is trailing challenger Steve Toth in the Texas Republican primary.
- Steve Toth declared victory on March 3, 2026, with 57% of the vote to Crenshaw’s 39.19%.
- The Associated Press has not yet officially called the race for Texas’ 2nd Congressional District.
- Crenshaw, a prominent conservative, has clashed with some GOP allies over Ukraine aid and certifying the 2020 election.
- Crenshaw is the only Texas Republican incumbent in the House without Donald Trump’s endorsement.
HOUSTON (Azat TV) – U.S. Representative Dan Crenshaw, a prominent figure in the Republican Party, is facing a significant challenge to his congressional seat, currently trailing State Representative Steve Toth in the Texas Republican primary for the 2nd Congressional District. Toth declared victory on Tuesday night, March 3, 2026, though the Associated Press has not yet officially called the race, signaling a potential shift in the party’s conservative landscape and intensifying internal debates over its future direction.
As of early Wednesday, March 4, 2026, Toth held a commanding lead with 57% of the vote, compared to Crenshaw’s 39.19%, according to KHOU 11. This substantial margin, if maintained above 50%, would prevent the race from proceeding to a runoff election. The unexpected outcome marks a reversal of fortune for Crenshaw, who has previously secured primary victories with double-digit leads, despite out-raising Toth by a significant $1.3 million.
The Challenge to a Prominent Incumbent
Dan Crenshaw, a former Navy SEAL, first took office in 2019 and is currently serving his fourth term. He has established himself as a recognizable conservative voice in Congress, focusing on issues such as barring federal funding for gender-affirming care and advocating for stronger measures against Mexican cartels. His policy positions have garnered endorsements from leading conservative organizations, including the National Rifle Association, and a wide array of local elected officials.
However, Crenshaw’s political trajectory has also seen him clash with certain factions within his own party. Notably, he has faced criticism for his support of aid to Ukraine and his vote to certify the 2020 presidential election results. These positions have distinguished him from some of his more staunchly conservative colleagues and, significantly, Crenshaw is the only Texas Republican incumbent in the House running without the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, a detail highlighted by The Texas Tribune.
Steve Toth’s Conservative Stance
State Representative Steve Toth, who has served in the Texas State House for over seven years across two terms, has positioned himself as a more unyielding conservative alternative. Toth is widely regarded as one of the Texas Republican Party’s most conservative members, having consistently questioned the commitment of party leadership, including Governor Greg Abbott, to core GOP values. His declaration of victory underscored his confidence that voters in Congressional District 2 desire a representative in Washington D.C. who will ‘stand firm in his convictions, fight for his constituents, and follow through on his promises,’ as stated in a news release.
Toth’s strong performance against an incumbent with national recognition and significant financial backing suggests a growing appetite among some Republican voters for candidates who align more closely with the party’s most conservative wing and who express skepticism about established leadership.
Implications for the Republican Party’s Future
The primary results in Texas’ 2nd Congressional District are more than just a local race; they reflect broader tensions within the Republican Party regarding its ideological direction and the influence of various factions. The challenge to Crenshaw, a conservative who has nonetheless diverged from some hardline positions, showcases the ongoing debate between different shades of conservatism and the role of loyalty to specific leaders or platforms.
Should Toth’s lead hold, the outcome would not only remove a prominent voice from Congress but also send a clear message about the types of candidates Republican primary voters are increasingly favoring. The winner of this Republican primary will advance to face Democrat Shaun Finnie in the general election scheduled for November.
The contest in Texas’ 2nd Congressional District underscores the dynamic and often contentious nature of the Republican Party’s internal struggles, as it navigates its future identity and priorities in the post-Trump era.