The recently published Economic Activity Index (EAI) data for October shows a year-on-year increase of 4.2% compared to the same month last year, though it has experienced a 4.6% drop compared to the previous month. This fluctuation highlights seasonal factors and the mixed nature of economic activity during this period.
The data reveals sectoral growth patterns, showing that trade turnover has increased by 13.7%, indicating robust consumer demand and economic resilience. Construction has also performed well with a 13.5% increase, reflecting ongoing infrastructure and real estate development projects. Industrial output has grown by 5.3%, demonstrating moderate productivity improvements across manufacturing and related industries. Similarly, the services sector has expanded by 5.2%, pointing to increased activities in tourism, IT, and other service-related areas.
One notable positive indicator is the growth in foreign trade, which increased by 12.9%. This includes a remarkable 23.1% surge in exports, potentially driven by diversified markets and enhanced competitiveness of Armenian products. Imports, on the other hand, rose by 6.6%, possibly indicating a stable domestic consumption pattern and increased demand for raw materials or capital goods.
However, the consumer price index (CPI) reflects only a 0.6% inflation rate in October year-on-year, suggesting relatively stable prices, which can indicate well-balanced demand and supply. The moderate inflation might be beneficial for maintaining the purchasing power of consumers and fostering economic stability.
In academic terms, the October figures point towards structural changes within the Armenian economy, with significant growth in the construction and trade sectors. The slight inflation rate coupled with higher trade figures suggests that the Armenian economy is managing to grow while keeping inflation pressures under control, potentially paving the way for stable medium-term economic expansion.
Future growth sustainability, however, will depend on global economic trends, Armenia’s external relations, and continued investment in productive sectors. Close monitoring of month-to-month fluctuations will be essential in forecasting and policy-making to ensure that Armenia’s economic recovery remains on a positive trajectory.