Europe Risks Geothermal Lead Amid Slow Deployment, Policy Gaps

BRUSSELS (Azat TV) – Europe finds itself at a critical juncture regarding geothermal energy, facing the risk of losing its pioneering leadership despite significant technological advancements and an untapped potential that could meet a substantial portion of its future electricity needs. This comes amid a slow and uneven deployment across the European Union, primarily due to the absence of a coordinated EU-level policy framework, according to a recent analysis by energy think tank Ember.

The continent, which boasts a rich history in geothermal development, including the world’s first geothermal electricity plant in Italy in 1904, is now seeing other regions, particularly the United States and Canada, scale up methods first tested in Europe. Ember’s February 2026 report highlights that while Europe has the technical expertise and geological resources, it lags in converting these assets into widespread commercial success, risking a shift in future scale-up and related economic benefits outside its borders.

Vast Untapped Geothermal Potential Across Europe

The European Union possesses an estimated 43 gigawatts (GW) of enhanced geothermal capacity that could be developed at costs below 100 €/MWh, making it competitive with coal and gas electricity. This significant potential could deliver approximately 301 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity annually, equivalent to about 42% of the EU’s coal- and gas-fired generation in 2025. The largest concentrations of this potential are found in Hungary, followed by Poland, Germany, and France.

Technological advances, often referred to as ‘next-generation geothermal,’ have revolutionized the sector. These innovations, including Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) and improved drilling techniques, have removed the previous reliance on naturally permeable rock formations. This means geothermal power generation is no longer confined to volcanic regions but can be deployed across much wider parts of Europe, accessing resources at depths of up to 7,000 meters. These deeper wells unlock dramatically larger potentials, increasing estimated capacity by more than 50 times when extending access from 2,000 to 5,000 meters, and roughly 180 times to 7,000 meters, as noted by Ember.

Geothermal’s Strategic Advantages and AI Synergy

Geothermal power plants offer crucial advantages for a modern energy system. They provide firm, dispatchable power, meaning they can operate continuously, unlike intermittent sources like wind and solar. Furthermore, geothermal reservoirs can offer battery-like storage capabilities, allowing operators to store thermal and pressure energy by varying injection and production rates. Simulations suggest heat can be stored for several days with efficiencies comparable to lithium-ion batteries, adding flexibility at a low additional cost.

This stable, always-available electricity source is particularly well-suited to meet the rapidly growing demand from data centers, whose global consumption is projected to more than double by the early 2030s. Geothermal can be developed alongside these energy-intensive sites, providing long-term, reliable power. In the United States, major technology companies such as Google and Meta are already deploying geothermal solutions for their data centers. Google’s partnership with Fevro, announced in 2021, resulted in the world’s first enhanced geothermal project built specifically for a data center, which is now fully operational. However, Europe has yet to see similar large-scale collaborations announced, according to Ember.

The synergy between geothermal development and artificial intelligence (AI) is also emerging. AI is used to analyze seismic and geological data, helping to identify promising sites, streamline drilling operations, and improve plant performance, creating a feedback loop where both technologies accelerate each other’s progress.

Europe’s Lagging Deployment and Policy Imperatives

Despite Europe’s foundational role and significant technical progress, commercial deployment remains slow and inconsistent. Ember identifies several key barriers: lengthy permitting processes, inconsistent national support, and the absence of a coordinated EU-level strategy with accompanying policies. While Europe accounts for the largest share of EGS projects worldwide (42 out of over 100), the pace of moving from demonstration to full-scale development trails other regions.

In contrast, the United States has integrated geothermal power firmly into its clean-energy toolkit, supported by federal legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act, which provides targeted investment and production tax credits. This has created clearer economic signals for developers and fostered bipartisan backing due to geothermal’s reliance on familiar drilling expertise and its around-the-clock output.

At the EU level, momentum has only recently begun to build. In 2024, both the EU Council and Parliament voiced support for accelerating geothermal deployment and proposed a European Geothermal Alliance. The forthcoming European Geothermal Action Plan is seen as a crucial step. However, translating this strategic recognition into widespread deployment will depend on how effectively geothermal is integrated across broader EU policy instruments. This includes reducing investment risk through shared mitigation tools and targeted EU financing, removing regulatory and geological bottlenecks via streamlined permitting and coordinated access to subsurface data, and fully recognizing geothermal’s system value in electricity market design and energy planning.

Europe’s current situation presents a paradox: a continent that pioneered geothermal technology and possesses immense untapped resources is now at risk of ceding its leadership. The ability to harness this potential, crucial for energy security, industrial decarbonization, and meeting rising electricity demands, hinges on the rapid implementation of a coherent and supportive EU-level policy framework that addresses investment risks and regulatory hurdles.