Global Low-Carbon Transition: Pathways, Challenges, and Breakthroughs in 2025

Low-Carbon Pathways: A World Divided by Ambition and Reality

The race toward a low-carbon future is intensifying in 2025, but the journey remains uneven, marked by regional disparities, technological optimism, and hard-edged pragmatism. TotalEnergies’ Energy Outlook 2025, presented from Paris, offers a clear-eyed map of three global scenarios for energy transition: Trends, Momentum, and Rupture. Each pathway frames a different future, shaped by the pace of policy change, technology adoption, and international cooperation.

Even as the world accelerates its shift to renewables, the report underscores a sobering fact: fossil fuels are still poised to supply about 60 percent of global energy by 2050, down from 80 percent today. This isn’t a prediction of defeat, but rather a recognition that the transition remains a work in progress, deeply influenced by affordability, regional inequality, and geopolitical constraints. The tension between expanding reliable power for billions—especially in emerging economies—and reducing emissions fast enough to meet climate goals is at the heart of this complex story.

Africa Sustainability Matters highlights how this challenge is particularly acute for Africa. The continent, home to 17 percent of the global population but only 4 percent of total energy use, faces a dilemma. More than 600 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to electricity. As economies industrialize, energy demand surges, often with fossil fuels as the quickest path to growth. Africa’s route to net zero, TotalEnergies argues, cannot simply mirror that of Europe or North America; it must balance urgent development needs with cost-effective deployment of technology.

Urban Innovation: Bangkok’s Solar City Initiative

While some regions grapple with basic energy access, others are pushing the boundaries of urban sustainability. On November 8, 2025, Bangkok’s Governor Chadchart Sittipunt launched the “Bangkok Solar City” initiative—a bold move to harness the city’s abundant sunlight and drive the capital toward clean, renewable energy. The program encourages widespread installation of solar rooftops, aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions and align with the city’s Net Zero policy and master plan for 2021-2030.

To break down barriers to adoption, the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) has released a guidebook and launched a user-friendly website, helping both citizens and officials navigate the complexities of solar panel installation. International collaboration is also a key ingredient: the Thai-German Cooperation on Energy, Mobility, and Climate (TGC-EMC), led by GIZ, is helping Bangkok integrate innovations across energy, transport, industry, and agriculture. As the city’s power grids become more interconnected, renewable sources like solar are set to play an increasingly vital role in building a resilient, low-carbon future.

China’s Accelerated Transition: Scale and Speed

Few countries have matched China’s pace in renewable energy development. According to a white paper released by China’s State Council Information Office (China Daily), the nation’s non-fossil energy consumption jumped from 16 percent in 2020 to nearly 20 percent by 2024. By August 2025, installed wind and photovoltaic capacity soared to 1,690 GW—three times the 2020 figure, and representing 80 percent of newly installed power generation since then. Hydropower, pumped storage, nuclear, and biomass capacities all rose sharply, positioning China as a global leader in green hydrogen production and low-carbon infrastructure.

China isn’t just building renewables; it’s also working to make its fossil energy use cleaner and more efficient, strengthening the reliability of its power system. These efforts are part of the country’s drive to reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060, milestones that hold significance as 2025 marks the tenth anniversary of the Paris Agreement. China’s example demonstrates that scale and rapid deployment can make a tangible impact, but also reveals the complexity of balancing energy security, industrial growth, and climate commitments.

Corporate Leadership: Accor’s Decarbonisation Breakthrough

The private sector is also making waves in climate action. Hospitality giant Accor received the World’s Leading Climate Action Initiative award at the 2025 World Sustainable Travel & Hospitality Awards (BW Hotelier) for its innovative supply chain decarbonisation program, “Achieving Net Zero Together.” Unlike many initiatives that focus on reporting, Accor’s approach is action-driven, organizing direct meetings between procurement managers and suppliers to design practical roadmaps for emissions reduction.

The program, launched in 2024, now includes more than 1,000 suppliers, representing 77 percent of Accor’s total procurement volume. By developing in-house tools and frameworks, the company is tackling one of the biggest challenges in corporate climate action: reducing supply chain emissions, often amid low supplier maturity and limited carbon data. Accor’s strategy centers on three pillars—measuring supplier carbon maturity, actively reducing emissions, and promoting low-carbon suppliers—earning it recognition as a CDP Supplier Engagement Leader, among the top six percent globally for supplier climate engagement.

Global Carbon Markets: Cooperation and Complexity

TotalEnergies’ Energy Outlook 2025 doesn’t just map scenarios—it calls for deeper global cooperation on carbon markets. The report argues that real progress depends on fully implementing Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which sets the rules for international carbon trading. This “global carbon arbitrage” would reduce emissions where it’s most cost-effective, potentially unlocking new financing for developing regions and allowing countries like those in Africa to host carbon-reduction projects and sell verified credits internationally.

Yet, the success of such systems relies on transparency, integrity, and equitable benefit sharing—conditions that have often faltered in previous carbon trading schemes. The Outlook warns that unless capital flows to where decarbonization is cheapest and most impactful, the world’s energy future will remain fragmented, with some regions surging ahead and others left behind.

Balancing Act: The Path Forward in 2025

The low-carbon transition in 2025 is a story of ambition meeting reality. The world is innovating—from Bangkok’s solar rooftops to China’s renewable mega-projects, and from Accor’s supply chain leadership to the urgent calls for carbon market reform. But the backbone of global energy remains fossil fuels, and the path to net zero is neither straightforward nor universally accessible.

For Africa and other developing regions, the challenge is doubly acute: expanding reliable, affordable energy without locking in high emissions or missing out on the green economy. For cities, it’s about mobilizing citizens and leveraging local resources. For corporations, it’s about embedding sustainability into every layer of procurement and operations. And for the global community, the imperative is to build systems—financial, technological, and regulatory—that enable cooperation rather than competition.

The evidence from 2025 points to a critical crossroads. While technology and policy are advancing, the pace of change is dictated by affordability, equity, and the willingness to share resources and solutions across borders. Success will depend not only on innovation, but on the courage to bridge divides—regional, economic, and political—to forge a truly global low-carbon future.