Quick Read
- Hurricane Melissa rapidly intensified into a Category 5 storm, now the strongest of 2025.
- Jamaica faces up to 40 inches of rain, 13-foot storm surges, and 175 mph winds.
- Mandatory evacuations ordered; over 800 shelters available, but uptake remains low.
- UN and US agencies are mobilizing humanitarian aid for Jamaica and neighboring regions.
- Melissa is expected to be the most powerful hurricane to hit Jamaica since 1988.
Melissa’s Rapid Intensification: A Meteorological Alarm Bell
As Hurricane Melissa barrels toward Jamaica, meteorologists and local officials are sounding alarms: this is not just another storm. Over the weekend, Melissa transformed from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds into a Category 4 hurricane in just 18 hours. By early Monday, it had reached Category 5 status, packing sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts even stronger, according to the National Hurricane Center. Melissa is now the most powerful storm to form anywhere on Earth in 2025, eclipsing the previous record set by Hurricane Allen in 1980.
This explosive growth, known as “rapid intensification,” is a phenomenon experts say is becoming more common as climate change warms the seas and loads the atmosphere with moisture. A recent Scientific Reports study found that Atlantic tropical cyclones were nearly 30% more likely to intensify rapidly between 2001 and 2020 compared to previous decades. Melissa is the latest, and perhaps starkest, example of this trend.
Jamaica on High Alert: Evacuations, Shelter, and Preparedness
Melissa’s approach triggered a swift and decisive response from Jamaican authorities. Mandatory evacuation orders were issued for six high-risk coastal areas, including Port Royal and parts of Kingston, Clarendon, and St. Andrew. Minister of Labour and Social Security Pearnel Charles stressed, “The evacuation order is not a suggestion, it is a directive to save your life.” School buses and other vehicles have been mobilized to transport residents to over 800 shelters across the island, though officials voiced concern about low public uptake—only 76 shelters reported any activity as of Monday afternoon.
Prime Minister Andrew Holness addressed the nation, warning against lawlessness and urging citizens to remain indoors, “The safest place to be at the moment.” Security forces have been deployed to prevent looting and maintain order, while transport systems—including all airports and bus services—have been shut down until further notice.
Unprecedented Threats: Flooding, Storm Surge, and Infrastructure Risk
The scale of Melissa’s potential impact is sobering. The National Hurricane Center warns of up to 40 inches of rain in Jamaica’s higher elevations—amounting to roughly 20% of the Blue Mountains’ annual rainfall in just a few days. Storm surges could reach up to 13 feet, threatening to inundate low-lying areas and critical infrastructure, such as the Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston, which sits on a vulnerable sand strip between the harbor and open sea. Both of Jamaica’s international airports are now closed as the storm lashes the island with wind and rain.
Residents in flood-prone neighborhoods face the highest risk, with meteorologists cautioning that landslides are “a very real possibility” as soil becomes saturated. Kingston’s bowl-like geography means heavy rainfall could funnel into the city, compounding flood threats. Over the weekend, workers dredged debris from Sandy Gully, hoping to mitigate bridge failures and prevent Kingston from being split in two by rising waters.
Jamaica’s Minister for Local Government Desmond McKenzie expects close to 50,000 people to be relocated. Yet misinformation is complicating efforts, with officials warning of fake videos and rumors about shelter fees circulating online. Ministers urged the public to rely on official updates and avoid crossing flooded gullies, referencing historical tragedies where vehicles and lives were lost.
Humanitarian Response and International Aid Mobilization
The magnitude of Melissa’s threat has drawn a global response. The United Nations is preparing to deploy staff to Jamaica and Cuba to bolster coordination and humanitarian efforts, pending safe conditions. The U.S. State Department, meanwhile, has pre-positioned emergency relief supplies in six warehouses and is closely monitoring the situation, ready to deploy additional aid as needed. Americans in Jamaica have been advised to shelter in place and notify loved ones of their whereabouts.
With the Bureau for Humanitarian Assistance now merged into the State Department, questions remain about the speed and flow of aid, especially given the closure of USAID earlier this year. Nonetheless, officials assure the capacity for “life-saving assistance” is intact.
Melissa in Context: Jamaica’s Hurricane History and Climate Change
Melissa is poised to be Jamaica’s most powerful hurricane since Gilbert struck in 1988, killing at least 40 people and causing widespread devastation. While infrastructure has been reinforced and the electricity grid improved since then, the nation has never tested its new systems against winds as fierce as Melissa’s. Minister Matthew Samuda noted, “We’re certainly better prepared than we would have been in the ’80s. But when you speak about 160 mph winds, we’ve never tested our new infrastructure in that regard.”
The phenomenon of rapid intensification is not unique to Melissa. Hurricanes Erin, Milton, Idalia, Ian, Ida, Laura, Dorian, and Harvey—all in the past decade—have demonstrated the growing volatility of Atlantic storms, fueled by warmer seas and moister air. Melissa’s leap from tropical storm to Category 5 in less than 24 hours is a stark reminder of this new reality.
Satellite imagery captured by Colorado State University’s Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere revealed lightning flashing across Melissa’s eye Monday morning, a dramatic visual underscoring the storm’s intensity. NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft flying into Melissa encountered such severe turbulence that one mission was aborted early to ensure the plane’s safety—a rare occurrence even for these seasoned crews.
As Melissa continues its slow crawl toward Jamaica, with the eye just 145 miles southwest of Kingston and moving at 3 mph, the island braces for a historic and potentially transformative event. The storm’s path will also threaten Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos in coming days, with damaging winds and catastrophic flooding expected.
In Kingston, as plywood covers windows and sandbags are stacked against doors, the streets are eerily quiet. The time for preparation, as Jamaica’s climate change minister said, “is all but over.” Residents are urged to store water and use resources sparingly, anticipating disruptions to essential services.
As Hurricane Melissa makes landfall, it’s not just Jamaica’s infrastructure that is being tested—it’s the nation’s resilience, its preparedness in the face of an evolving climate, and the global community’s ability to respond swiftly to disasters that are becoming more intense and unpredictable. Melissa is a stark signal that adaptation and vigilance are no longer optional, but necessary for survival.