Iran and Russia Stand to Lose from US-Brokered Peace Deal Between Armenia and Azerbaijan

The recent US-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan is making waves across the Caucasus, with significant implications for regional power dynamics. On Friday, in a landmark move, the two countries signed an agreement in Washington to end decades of hostilities. This deal, however, has not only brought Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to peace but also triggered concerns in Iran and Russia, both of whom perceive it as a direct challenge to their influence in the region.

A Corridor of Contention

At the heart of the agreement is the establishment of a strategic transit corridor through southern Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave. The United States will oversee the corridor under Armenian sovereignty through a 99-year lease. Dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), this corridor is set to include roads, railways, and energy pipelines, offering a direct connection between Europe and Asia while bypassing Russia and Iran.

For Iran, this development represents a geopolitical threat. Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, warned that Tehran would take all measures to prevent the corridor’s creation. He characterized the project as a “political plot” designed to isolate Iran and redraw regional borders. Velayati also voiced concerns about NATO’s potential presence near Iran’s northern borders, stating that such a move would jeopardize the region’s security.

Russia, too, has expressed reservations. While cautiously supporting efforts to stabilize the region, Moscow has warned against excessive involvement by non-regional players. According to The Guardian, Russia’s preoccupation with the ongoing war in Ukraine has left it unable to counteract the US initiative effectively. This shift further underscores the waning influence of Moscow in a region where it once held significant sway.

Economic and Strategic Implications

The corridor’s establishment has profound economic and strategic ramifications. For Armenia, the project offers a potential lifeline to break its economic isolation. By integrating into the Middle Corridor trade route connecting Europe and China, Armenia could reap substantial economic benefits. However, this comes at the cost of straining its relations with Iran, a traditional ally, and Russia, a key military partner.

Azerbaijan stands to gain significantly from the deal. President Ilham Aliyev has lauded the agreement as a historic milestone, emphasizing its potential to enhance Azerbaijan’s connectivity and economic prospects. By securing this corridor, Azerbaijan not only fulfills a longstanding geopolitical goal but also strengthens its ties with NATO member Turkey, a key ally in the region.

The United States, on the other hand, views the deal as a strategic victory. By establishing a presence in the Caucasus, Washington aims to counterbalance Russian and Iranian influence while promoting regional stability. The White House stated that the corridor would “respect the sovereignty, territorial integrity, and people of Armenia,” positioning the US as a mediator and peacebuilder in a historically volatile region.

Iran’s Growing Isolation

The peace deal has left Iran increasingly isolated in the South Caucasus. Tehran has long opposed the creation of the Zangezur corridor, viewing it as a direct threat to its access to the Black Sea and Europe. Iranian officials have accused the US of using the corridor to encroach upon Iran’s geopolitical sphere and weaken its regional alliances. In a statement, the Iranian Foreign Ministry called for all projects near its borders to respect “national sovereignty and territorial integrity” and warned against foreign interference.

Velayati further emphasized that the corridor could lead to Armenia’s disintegration, a concern echoed by some Armenian opposition groups. Despite these warnings, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has shown a willingness to pivot westward, seeking closer ties with the European Union and the US. This shift reflects a broader trend of diminishing Russian and Iranian influence in the Caucasus.

Regional Reactions and Future Prospects

Turkey, a staunch ally of Azerbaijan, has welcomed the peace deal, viewing it as an opportunity to enhance its regional influence. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has expressed support for the corridor, highlighting its potential to boost trade and connectivity between Europe and Asia. According to Tabnak, Turkey sees the project as a critical component of its broader Middle Corridor strategy.

Meanwhile, Russia and Iran have found themselves aligned in their opposition to the US-led initiative. Both countries have warned of the corridor’s potential to disrupt regional stability and have called for solutions developed by regional players rather than external powers. However, their ability to counter the agreement remains limited, given their respective preoccupations with domestic and international challenges.

For Armenia and Azerbaijan, the deal marks a turning point in their fraught relationship. While the corridor could foster economic cooperation and reduce the likelihood of future conflicts, it also presents significant challenges. Azerbaijan’s demand for Armenia to amend its constitution to eliminate territorial claims has sparked tensions, with a referendum on the issue scheduled for 2027. These unresolved disputes underscore the fragile nature of the peace process.

As the region grapples with the implications of the US-brokered deal, the world watches closely. The agreement has the potential to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Caucasus, offering opportunities for economic development and regional integration while posing risks of new conflicts and rivalries.

The US-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan represents both a milestone and a challenge. As the region adjusts to the new reality, the actions of key players like Iran, Russia, and the US will shape the future of the Caucasus for years to come.