Maharashtra’s Population Reaches 12.93 Crore Amid Demographic Shift

MUMBAI (Azat TV) – Maharashtra, India’s second-most populous state, is projected to reach a population of 12.93 crore (129.3 million) by March 1, 2026, marking a significant demographic shift characterized by a falling fertility rate and an aging populace. This pivotal insight comes from the Economic Survey of Maharashtra 2025-26, which was tabled in the state legislature on Thursday, highlighting trends that place the state at the forefront of India’s evolving population dynamics.

The survey indicates a substantial increase from the 11.24 crore recorded in the 2011 Census, reflecting continued growth despite declining fertility. However, the report emphasizes that this growth is accompanied by crucial changes in age structure and reproductive patterns, signaling a new phase in the state’s demographic journey. These projections underscore the need for adaptive policy-making to address both the opportunities and challenges presented by these shifts, from workforce planning to social welfare provisions.

Maharashtra’s Evolving Demographics and Density

The Economic Survey of Maharashtra 2025-26 provides a detailed snapshot of the state’s projected population figures for the current year. By March 2026, Maharashtra’s population is expected to comprise 6.73 crore males and 6.20 crore females. The report further breaks down the distribution, estimating the rural population at 6.55 crore and the urban population at 6.38 crore. This highlights a near-even split between urban and rural residents, a reflection of Maharashtra’s higher urbanization rate compared to the national average.

The state’s population density is also on the rise, projected to reach 420 persons per square kilometer by March 2026, up from 365 persons per square kilometer in 2011. Maharashtra’s urbanization rate, recorded at 45.2 percent in the 2011 Census, significantly surpassed India’s national rate of 31.1 percent. This trend of increasing urban population has been consistent since the state’s formation in 1960, growing from 28.2 percent in 1961 to 45.2 percent in 2011. Regionally, the Konkan division, which includes the bustling metropolis of Mumbai, is projected to hold the largest share of the 2026 population, accounting for 25.2 percent or 3.26 crore people. The Pune division follows with 21.1 percent (2.73 crore), while Nashik accounts for 16.9 percent (2.18 crore).

Declining Fertility and an Aging Population in India

A key finding of the survey is the pronounced decline in Maharashtra’s fertility rates, falling well below the replacement level. The state’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which represents the average number of children born per woman, has dropped from 1.77 during 2011-15 to a projected 1.56 for 2021-25. It is expected to stabilize around 1.51 by 2031-35, significantly lower than the replacement level of 2.1. For context, India’s national TFR for the corresponding period is projected at 1.9, also below replacement but still higher than Maharashtra’s figures.

This declining fertility directly impacts the age structure. The proportion of children aged 0-14 years is set to decrease from 26.7 percent in 2011 to 19.6 percent by 2026. Conversely, the working-age population (15-59 years) is expanding, rising from 63.3 percent in 2011 to 67.3 percent by 2026. Concurrently, the population aged 60 years and above is projected to increase from 10 percent in 2011 to 13.1 percent in 2026, and further to 17.1 percent by 2036. This demographic shift initially leads to a decline in the total dependency ratio – the burden of young and elderly dependents on the working-age population – from 57.9 percent in 2011 to 48.6 percent in 2026. However, this ratio is expected to rise again to 51 percent by 2036 as the growing elderly population offsets the benefits of a smaller child demography, as reported by The Economic Times.

Health and Social Indicators in Maharashtra

Maharashtra consistently demonstrates stronger public health infrastructure and better social indicators compared to national averages. The state’s Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is projected to decline from 15.2 per thousand population during 2011-15 to 12.4 during 2021-25, and further to 10.4 per thousand by 2031-35, consistently remaining below India’s projected CBR of 16.0 per thousand for 2021-25. The Crude Death Rate (CDR) in Maharashtra is projected at 7.2 per thousand for 2021-25, broadly in line with the national projection of 7.0 per thousand.

Remarkably, Maharashtra’s Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) is projected to fall from 25 per thousand live births in 2011-15 to 21 per thousand during 2021-25, and further to 19 per thousand by 2026-30. These figures are significantly lower than the national IMR of 35.3 per thousand for 2021-25, highlighting the state’s robust health services. Life expectancy at birth in Maharashtra also exceeds national averages, projected at 71.9 years for males and 75.9 years for females during 2021-25, compared to national averages of 69.4 and 72.7 years, respectively. Despite these positive health trends, the state’s sex ratio of 929 females per thousand males (2011 Census) remains below the national average of 943, a gap that is projected to persist.

The findings of the Economic Survey of Maharashtra 2025-26 reveal a significant demographic transition for the state, characterized by a rapidly aging population and below-replacement fertility rates. This places Maharashtra ahead of the national curve in terms of demographic change, presenting both advantages, such as a larger working-age population in the short term, and long-term challenges related to elder care, pension systems, and maintaining a robust workforce in the face of sustained low birth rates. The state’s experience could offer valuable lessons for other Indian regions as they too approach similar demographic shifts.