Quick Read
- Iran experiences severe protests, with thousands reportedly killed by security forces.
- The Iranian regime has resumed infrastructure work at nuclear facilities, raising concerns.
- Trump’s proposed ‘Board of Peace’ aims to replace the UN in arbitrating international conflicts.
- Hamas retains control over 40% of Gaza, seeking integration into new security plans.
- Kurdish leaders deny agreement on integration into Syrian security, raising fears of renewed war.
JERUSALEM (Azat TV) – Regional stability across the Middle East is facing severe tests amid the evolving foreign policy approach of President Donald Trump, with significant concerns emerging over Iran’s internal turmoil and nuclear ambitions, the complex aftermath in Gaza, and the precarious situation of Kurdish allies in Syria. This shifting global framework, characterized by a willingness to challenge established international norms, raises questions about the future of alliances and conflict resolution in critical flashpoints, according to a recent report by Israel Hayom.
Iran’s Deepening Crisis and Nuclear Ambitions
Iran is grappling with an unprecedented internal crisis, marked by the most severe wave of protests since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Intelligence assessments suggest that the country will not return to its former state, at least in the short term. During a seven-day period of unrest, between 3,000 and 5,000 people were reportedly killed, primarily by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Basij forces, often in broad daylight. Protests erupted in hundreds of locations, including major cities and minority regions where support for the regime is weaker.
A prolonged internet shutdown, which has lasted over 400 consecutive hours, has not only hampered the protest movement but also severely damaged the Iranian economy, disrupting sectors reliant on online communication. The regime’s hesitancy to fully restore internet access stems from fears that a flood of videos documenting the crackdown could reignite protests and amplify calls for American intervention.
Iran now faces three stark options: a suicidal war, a capitulation deal, or a slow decline. From Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s perspective, a comprehensive ‘dream deal’ involving the complete abandonment of both nuclear and missile programs is not on the table. While sham negotiations to buy time are possible, the underlying issues fueling the protests—water shortages, crumbling infrastructure, 40-50% unemployment, a collapsing currency, and rampant inflation—appear insurmountable as long as international sanctions persist.
Adding to regional anxieties, Iran has resumed infrastructure work at its nuclear facilities. While Natanz was reportedly destroyed, the Fordow site remains active, with efforts to deepen its immunity zone. The regime has preserved and dispersed highly enriched uranium, raising concerns about its potential to produce an improvised bomb in the coming months.
The possibility of an American strike against Iran is a working assumption, driven by President Trump’s desire to avoid appearing weak. Such a strike would likely provoke an Iranian response against Israel, which, following the events of October 7, will not absorb blows quietly, according to the report. This escalating dynamic presents a rare and potentially decisive opportunity for regime change, though no one is willing to commit to such an outcome.
Gaza’s Shifting Landscape and Trump’s Peace Board
In Gaza, the complex post-conflict reality continues to unfold. Hamas reportedly controls about 40% of the Strip, actively recruiting, training, and tightening its grip on daily life, including tax collection. The organization is attempting to integrate into any new security mechanism established in Gaza by ostensibly handing over weapons while maintaining its operational presence—a scenario Israel has firmly rejected, fearing a ‘Hezbollah model’ for the territory. Israel insists that the return of hostage Ran Gvili take precedence over any Phase Two agreement moves, even as the agreement progresses.
Meanwhile, President Trump is advancing his vision for a ‘Board of Peace,’ which he intends to head for life, even after his presidential term concludes. This board, discussed at Davos, is envisioned as the most senior of four entities designed to address conflicts in Gaza and beyond, effectively replacing the United Nations. This move reflects Trump’s willingness to challenge established international conventions, which he views as frameworks for the weak, favoring a world order based on ‘power, honor, and cash.’
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced criticism for responding positively to the proposal to join this board alongside actors like Qatar, Turkey, and Russia. However, the pragmatic view is that it is better to be at the table than to be on the menu. The report suggests that Qatar and Turkey, despite being rivals, could become cornerstones of a new and potentially dangerous regional axis.
Syria, the Kurds, and Regional Power Plays
Another significant point of concern in Trump’s new world order is the situation surrounding the Kurds in Syria. While Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa announced an agreement for Kurdish integration into Syria’s security mechanisms, Kurdish leader Mazloum Abdi has denied any such agreement, raising fears of renewed conflict and potential bloodshed. This situation holds significant interest for Israel for several reasons.
Firstly, the Kurds are considered strategic allies, controlling a vital corridor spanning Syria, Turkey, Iraq, and Iran. Abandoning them would not only be seen as a betrayal but also practically harm Israel’s security interests. Secondly, al-Sharaa’s growing strength and ambitions are viewed negatively by Israel, especially given his desire to reclaim the Golan Heights and restrict Israeli air operations in Syrian airspace. Thirdly, there is concern that the regime’s murderous elements could resurface against Alawites and Druze, following potential actions against the Kurds. Moreover, the prospect of thousands of Islamic State prisoners being released from Kurdish-controlled facilities due to renewed conflict poses a significant international security risk.
The American position, where Washington reportedly did not impede al-Sharaa or defend the Kurds despite their status as US assets receiving economic and military support, has fueled fears that Trump might abandon other allies in the future.
The Broader Implications of a Redefined Global Order
The unfolding events in Iran, Gaza, and Syria underscore a turbulent period in international relations, largely influenced by President Trump’s distinctive foreign policy approach. His stated preference for bilateral dealings and a re-evaluation of long-standing alliances, while aiming to disrupt what he perceives as a failing global system, introduces significant unpredictability. The potential for miscalculation, particularly in already volatile regions, is heightened as traditional diplomatic safeguards are questioned or bypassed.
The confluence of internal strife in Iran, the unresolved governance issues in Gaza, and the abandonment of key allies in Syria by Washington indicates a strategic pivot that prioritizes perceived national interests over established multilateral frameworks. This approach, while championed by its proponents as a necessary recalibration of global power, risks creating a vacuum that can be filled by opportunistic regional actors, potentially leading to intensified conflicts and a further erosion of international stability.