Omar Fateh’s Rising Odds in the Minneapolis Mayoral Race: What Voters Need to Know

Omar Fateh’s Surging Popularity in Minneapolis Politics

As Minneapolis gears up for its 2025 mayoral election, the city’s political landscape is buzzing with anticipation. While incumbent Jacob Frey has held the office since 2018, it’s Omar Fateh—the state senator with Somali heritage—who’s drawing headlines and shifting the conversation. Fateh’s odds have tightened considerably, making him the clear front-runner among challengers and a figure whose background and coalition-building are fueling a groundswell of support.

Fateh’s journey to this moment began long before this campaign. Born in the Washington, D.C. area to Somali immigrant parents, Fateh spent formative summers in Minneapolis before settling there in 2015. His personal story resonates with many in the city’s diverse communities, and his rise in local politics has been marked by advocacy for progressive causes and social equity.

The Betting Markets: Measuring Fateh’s Momentum

Political odds aren’t just the domain of pundits and pollsters—they’re now a fixture on prediction platforms like BetOnline and Polymarket, where numbers reflect real-time shifts in public sentiment. According to Gambling911.com, Jacob Frey is the betting favorite at -400, but Fateh’s odds have shortened to +250, a notable improvement from previous weeks. This isn’t just statistical noise; it’s an indicator of Fateh’s growing visibility and the active interest among voters and observers.

These odds place Fateh ahead of other challengers, including Rev. Dewayne Davis and Jazz Hampton, who have formed a strategic agreement with Fateh to encourage voters not to rank Frey, hoping to split the vote and increase their collective chances. The comparison to Zohran Mamdani—a Democratic socialist projected to win New York City’s mayoral contest—underscores Fateh’s appeal among progressive circles and signals a broader shift in urban politics.

Election Day Essentials: Voter Engagement and Key Issues

The stakes in Minneapolis—and across Minnesota—are high this year. With all 13 city council seats also up for reelection, the mayoral race is just one part of a larger political puzzle. Voters are encouraged to check their registration status, locate their polling places, and review sample ballots provided by the Secretary of State’s office. Polling stations generally open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., and anyone in line by closing time will be allowed to vote, ensuring maximum participation.

In neighboring St. Paul, another closely watched mayoral contest is underway, with Melvin Carter seeking reelection against Kaohly Her, a state representative with legislative experience. St. Paul voters will also decide on two critical ballot questions: one proposing city charter amendments to allow fines for ordinance violations, and another aiming to boost the public schools’ operating levy by $37.2 million annually—a move that could raise property taxes by up to 14.2%.

Across Minnesota, roughly 96 school districts are presenting referendum requests. These range from cybersecurity upgrades and new gymnasiums to enhanced security systems and technology training. For example, St. Michael-Albertville is seeking approval for a $21 million bond to improve school safety, while Roseville’s $60 million capital levy targets tech improvements and cybersecurity.

Coalitions, Strategy, and the Fateh Factor

Fateh’s strategy hinges on coalition-building and energizing voters who feel underserved by the status quo. The alliance with Davis and Hampton is more than tactical; it’s a reflection of shared priorities and a commitment to progressive change. By urging voters to avoid ranking Frey, they hope to maximize their collective chances and disrupt the incumbent’s path to a third term.

This approach mirrors broader trends in American municipal politics, where alliances among challengers can reshape races and force incumbents to confront new coalitions. Fateh’s own narrative—grounded in his immigrant roots and advocacy for marginalized communities—positions him as a candidate of change, capable of rallying diverse segments of Minneapolis’s electorate.

His odds in the betting markets aren’t just a curiosity for gamblers; they signal a real shift in how outsiders and insiders view the race. As of this week, Fateh’s +250 odds reflect both his growing support and the volatility of the contest. Jacob Frey remains favored, but the narrowing gap suggests the outcome is anything but predetermined.

What’s at Stake: Minneapolis’s Future Direction

The election is more than a contest between personalities—it’s a referendum on the city’s trajectory. Issues like affordable housing, police reform, economic recovery, and community engagement are at the forefront of voters’ minds. Fateh’s platform emphasizes equity, transparency, and responsiveness, while Frey touts experience and continuity. The coalition’s call for change resonates with younger voters and those seeking a new approach to longstanding challenges.

As Election Day approaches on November 7, 2025, Minneapolis residents have a clear choice. Will they stick with the familiar leadership of Frey, or will they embrace Fateh’s promise of transformation? The presence of robust school funding referendums and ballot measures adds another layer of complexity, with local issues intersecting with broader debates about governance and public investment.

For those eager to track results, resources like the WCCO election results page and other local news outlets will provide real-time updates. The outcome will not only shape Minneapolis’s immediate future but could signal wider trends in urban leadership across the country.

Omar Fateh’s rising odds and coalition-driven campaign illustrate a dynamic shift in Minneapolis’s political landscape. As voter engagement intensifies and alliances take shape, the race reflects both the city’s diversity and its appetite for change. Whether Fateh’s momentum can overcome the incumbent advantage remains to be seen, but his candidacy is already redefining the conversation about who leads—and who represents—the city’s future.