Patriots vs Jets 2025: AFC East Clash, Odds, and Playoff Stakes

On Sunday, December 28, 2025, the New England Patriots (12-3) travel to MetLife Stadium to face the New York Jets (3-12) in a Week 17 AFC East showdown. For the Patriots, this isn’t just another game—it’s a chance to clinch their first division title since 2019 and solidify their status as Super Bowl contenders. For the Jets, it’s about pride and the hope of disrupting their rival’s postseason plans, even as their own season veers toward a high draft pick.

The contrast between these two teams couldn’t be starker. New England arrives with momentum: they rank fifth in total offense (370.1 yards per game) and sixth in total defense (302.1 yards allowed). Quarterback Drake Maye is the engine behind their resurgence, boasting 3,947 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, only eight interceptions, and a league-leading 70.9% completion rate. Maye’s precision has been compared to a surgeon’s scalpel—he simply doesn’t miss, and with two games left, he could become the youngest QB in NFL history to lead in completion percentage for a full season (CBS Sports).

Last week, Maye threw for over 300 yards against the Ravens, with Stefon Diggs hauling in 10 passes for 138 yards, shaking off a mid-season slump. On the ground, TreVeyon Henderson has contributed 776 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, though he’s questionable with a concussion. New England’s offensive balance and defensive discipline make them a daunting opponent, especially for a Jets squad struggling on both fronts.

New York’s story is one of frustration and transition. The Jets have dropped three straight, most recently a 29-6 defeat to the Saints. Their offense has sputtered, ranking last in passing yards (145.9 per game) and fifth-worst in points per game (18.8). Injuries have forced third-string quarterback Brady Cook into action, while starter Tyrod Taylor has managed 779 passing yards over six games, with a modest five touchdowns and five interceptions. The defense hasn’t fared much better, surrendering 28.4 points per game—third-worst in the NFL—and ranking near the bottom in turnover margin (-18).

If the Jets are looking for a silver lining, it’s running back Breece Hall. Just 46 yards shy of 1,000, Hall could become New York’s first 1,000-yard rusher since 2015, ending the NFL’s longest active drought. But for the Jets to pull off an upset, Hall would need a career day, and the defense would have to find answers it hasn’t shown in months (Fox Sports).

The Patriots are heavy favorites: the consensus spread sits at -13.5, and most experts from CBS and ESPN expect New England to win comfortably. Oddsshark predicts a 30.5-17.6 Patriots victory, with the total likely to go over 42.5 points. Recent trends reinforce the odds: New England is 11-1 in its last 12 games and 17-2 against the Jets in their last 19 meetings. The Patriots are also undefeated on the road this season (7-0), while the Jets are just 1-6 at home.

Weather at MetLife Stadium should be typical for late December: cloudy skies, temperatures around freezing, and minimal wind impact. That likely favors the more balanced and mistake-free Patriots.

As for the stakes: a Patriots win plus a Bills loss to the Eagles would seal the AFC East for New England. If both win, the division race goes to Week 18. The Jets, meanwhile, are playing for draft position and a chance to play spoiler—though recent performances suggest that’s a tall order.

For fans, the game airs nationally on FOX and streams via FOX One, NFL+, and several digital platforms. Adam Amin and Drew Brees will handle commentary, with Kristina Pink reporting from the sidelines (CBS News Boston).

Injuries could shape the contest. The Patriots have several players either out or questionable, including TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Demario Douglas (hamstring). The Jets are missing key contributors as well, such as Mack Hollins (abdomen), Harold Landry III (knee), and Antonio Gibson (ACL).

Looking ahead, New England faces Miami in Week 18, while the Jets close their season at Buffalo. For now, all eyes are on MetLife, where the Patriots have a chance to crown a remarkable turnaround under first-year head coach Mike Vrabel.

Analysis: With so much at stake for the Patriots, and a Jets team mired in offensive and defensive struggles, it’s hard to see anything but a decisive New England victory. The quarterback gap, recent form, and statistical trends all point to the Patriots controlling this matchup from start to finish. The only question is whether New York can muster enough resistance to keep the score respectable—or if this game will be remembered as the moment the Patriots reclaimed their AFC East crown.