Rodrigo Paz’s Presidential Win Ushers in a New Era for Bolivia: What’s Next After 20 Years of MAS Rule?

Bolivia’s Political Landscape Transformed: Rodrigo Paz Sweeps to Power

In the early hours of October 20, 2025, Bolivia woke to a political reality few had predicted just months before. Rodrigo Paz, a centrist senator known more for his famous father than for national stature, clinched the presidency in a landslide runoff. The result marked the end of 20 years under the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS), and the beginning of a new chapter for a country battered by economic crisis and political fatigue.

Paz’s Christian Democratic Party (PDC) secured 54.5% of the vote, defeating Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, a $1 running under the Libre coalition. The scale of Paz’s win was stunning, especially given his lackluster polling early in the campaign and the entrenched MAS machinery. But for many Bolivians, the urgent need for economic recovery and fresh leadership outweighed party loyalties and past allegiances.

From Obscurity to the Palacio Quemado: The Rise of Rodrigo Paz

Rodrigo Paz’s journey to the presidency is as unconventional as Bolivia’s shifting political winds. Born in Spain to Jaime Paz Zamora—a $1 and founder of the Marxist-inspired Revolutionary Left Movement—Paz grew up amid exile and ideological upheaval. His father’s transition from leftist firebrand to pragmatic statesman set the template for the younger Paz’s own political evolution.

After starting his career in his father’s party, Paz moved steadily rightward, eventually embracing conservative reforms and business-friendly policies. As mayor of Tarija, he modernized the city’s center but left some working-class residents feeling marginalized—especially as oil revenues dwindled and public sector layoffs mounted. Yet, it was precisely this blend of fiscal discipline and reformist ambition that set Paz apart from his rivals.

Paz’s campaign was initially so under-the-radar that he was excluded from the first televised debates. Supporters resorted to guerrilla tactics—raising signs with his contact details, demanding his inclusion. By August, he was polling near the bottom of an eight-candidate field. But the addition of Edman Lara, a former police captain fired for exposing corruption, electrified his campaign. Lara’s viral activism and relatable story resonated in Bolivia’s highlands, especially among Indigenous voters disillusioned with MAS.

A Divided Electorate Seeks Change: Why Paz Won

The runoff was a contest between two conservatives, but their approaches diverged sharply. Quiroga advocated rapid fiscal shock and an IMF bailout, promising to abolish fuel subsidies—a move that would have doubled prices overnight. Paz, by contrast, offered gradual reform, promising to end subsidies and devalue the currency, but to do so gently. He pledged cash handouts and transitional benefits for the poor, pitching a vision of “capitalism for all” that appealed to a new generation of Aymara entrepreneurs, university graduates, and small business owners forged during MAS’s heyday.

Paz’s message found purchase in six of Bolivia’s nine departments, including the political capital, La Paz, where he won 65% of the vote. Even in Tarija—his hometown—his party lost, but the national tide carried him to victory. In Santa Cruz, the conservative heartland, Quiroga prevailed, reflecting deep regional divides that persist beneath the surface of Bolivia’s political map.

“Bolivia breathes winds of change and renewal to keep moving forward,” Paz declared in his victory speech. He invoked “God, family, and country”—a succinct encapsulation of his campaign’s values. The streets of La Paz, unusually quiet due to the election-day traffic ban, bore witness to a peaceful transition—a rare reprieve from the turmoil that marked previous contests.

Economic Crisis and the Challenge Ahead

Paz inherits a country in economic distress. The MAS years brought generous subsidies and state-driven development, buoyed by a commodities boom. But as natural gas exports waned and hard currency grew scarce, Bolivia’s statist model collapsed. Voters now face fuel shortages and long queues, with inflation biting deep into family budgets.

Paz’s promise to “reopen” Bolivia to the world signals a likely reset in foreign relations. His post-election trip to Washington, where he courted think tanks and emphasized cooperation with the United States, marks a break from the Morales era, which saw the expulsion of U.S. diplomats and close ties with Venezuela, China, and Russia. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio hailed Paz’s victory as “a transformative opportunity for both nations,” underscoring shared priorities around investment, security, and immigration.

Chile’s President Gabriel Boric Font and U.S. Rep. Carlos Gimenez also sent congratulations, with Gimenez declaring that Bolivia had “turned the page & defeated socialism.” Such endorsements highlight the international stakes as Paz navigates the challenges of economic recovery and regional diplomacy.

Reconciliation and the Road to Reform

Edman Lara, the vice president-elect, was quick to call for unity: “It’s time for brotherhood and reconciliation—we are all Bolivians.” His popularity, especially among social media-savvy youth and working-class voters, was instrumental in Paz’s win. Yet the relationship between Paz and Lara promises tension, with questions swirling about how their government will maintain stability and deliver on campaign promises.

Paz has begun talks with parliamentary parties to ensure governability. “With our caucus, we can form a majority with any of the other parties—but not the other way around,” he quipped, signaling both confidence and a readiness to negotiate.

The only dissenting voice came from Evo Morales, who, though barred from running and facing legal troubles, insisted that neither Paz nor Quiroga “represents the people or Indigenous communities.” Morales’s lingering influence in the Andean west is a reminder that Bolivia’s political transformation is far from complete.

What Does This Mean for Bolivia’s Future?

Paz’s victory is a mandate for change, but it is also a test of moderation. Unlike Quiroga, whose policies threatened rapid upheaval, Paz’s gradual approach aims to balance reform with social stability. His challenge will be to navigate deep regional, ethnic, and class divisions, while restoring economic growth and international trust.

Bolivia stands at a crossroads. The old order has crumbled, but the new one is yet to be forged. For many, Paz’s rise offers hope that the country can move beyond the extremes of its recent past—toward a future where opportunity and reconciliation go hand in hand.

Rodrigo Paz’s ascent signals Bolivia’s yearning for pragmatic change after years of polarized rule. His task is formidable: to heal a fractured society, revive a struggling economy, and prove that gradual reform can deliver real progress. Whether his centrist vision succeeds will depend on his ability to unite diverse constituencies and manage expectations in a nation ready for renewal.