The collapse of the Assad regime in late 2024 dealt a severe blow to Russia’s Mediterranean ambitions, culminating in the loss of its naval base in Tartus, Syria. This strategic outpost had been pivotal to Russia’s regional influence since 2013, facilitating the deployment of Russian submarines and naval forces. Without Tartus, the Russian Navy has been forced to withdraw its assets, leaving the Mediterranean devoid of Russian submarines for the first time in over a decade.
On January 2, 2025, the departure of the Improved Kilo-class submarine Novorossiysk (B-61) through the Strait of Gibraltar marked the end of a continuous Russian submarine deployment in the region. Confirmed by the Portuguese Navy, this exit underscores the operational challenges Russia now faces. Without a reliable Mediterranean base, sustaining submarine deployments has become unfeasible, rendering Russia’s Mediterranean Task Force severely weakened.
The Tartus naval base was more than a logistical hub; it was the cornerstone of Russia’s Mediterranean naval strategy. Supporting Kilo-class submarines and other naval assets, Tartus enabled prolonged regional power projection and supported Russia’s influence in the Middle East and Africa.
The absence of this base now forces Russian submarines to rely on extended at-sea operations and infrequent port calls, a severe limitation for conventionally powered vessels. These logistical constraints highlight Russia’s diminishing ability to counter Western naval dominance or provide meaningful support to its allies.
Reports indicate delays in the arrival of a potential replacement for Novorossiysk, with the Krasnodar (B-265) or Mozhaisk (B-608) identified as possible candidates. However, the lack of clarity surrounding their status suggests mechanical issues or strategic reassessments as Moscow grapples with the shifting geopolitical landscape.
The absence of a submarine presence not only undermines Russia’s ability to project power but also signals the Navy’s growing vulnerability amidst mounting logistical and operational challenges.
Russia’s Mediterranean retreat mirrors systemic weaknesses across its navy. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has drained resources and focus from naval operations, exacerbating maintenance issues and limiting operational readiness. Western sanctions and domestic economic pressures compound these problems, further curtailing Moscow’s ability to sustain global naval deployments.
Efforts to secure an alternative Mediterranean base, such as through partnerships with Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar, remain speculative and fraught with political instability. With Haftar’s health and succession plans uncertain, these options lack the stability necessary for a reliable naval foothold.
The loss of Tartus marks a turning point for Russia’s Mediterranean strategy and its broader maritime ambitions. Without a clear alternative base or substantial investments in naval infrastructure, Moscow’s capacity to sustain a consistent presence in the Mediterranean is in jeopardy. The strategic vacuum left by Russia’s withdrawal could reshape the region’s power dynamics, presenting opportunities for Western influence while further isolating Moscow from its geopolitical goals.
As Russia navigates these challenges, the future of its Mediterranean ambitions remains uncertain, signaling a significant reduction in its ability to assert itself as a global naval power.
