Russian Oil Refineries Face Crisis Amid Attacks and Fuel Shortages

Ukrainian Drone Attacks Disrupt Russian Oil Infrastructure

Throughout September 2025, Russia’s oil industry has been caught in a perfect storm of external strikes and internal market turmoil. The most immediate and dramatic impact came from a series of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks that targeted key Russian oil refineries, including the Salavat and Volgograd plants. According to Reuters, these strikes halted around 300,000 barrels per day of refining capacity, forcing shutdowns and damaging crucial infrastructure.

But the disruption didn’t end there. The Kirishi refinery—one of Russia’s largest, with an annual processing capacity exceeding 20 million tons—was also forced to stop crude processing after a drone attack earlier in the month. Damage extended beyond refineries to export hubs along Russia’s Baltic coast, where attacks have crippled storage and transportation facilities. Data from Vortexa Ltd. cited by Bloomberg shows Russian crude-processing runs dropped to just under 5 million barrels per day in the first three days of September, the lowest monthly average in more than three years.

As the war in Ukraine grinds on, these strikes are more than tactical blows—they are reshaping the entire Russian oil landscape. The attacks have forced Russia to prioritize domestic needs over exports, with government officials contemplating an extension of the ban on motor fuel exports into October. Producers have also been urged to redirect diesel supplies to the domestic market.

Fuel Shortages and Skyrocketing Gasoline Prices Across Russia

The consequences have rippled far beyond the refinery gates. At least 20 Russian regions, including territories occupied in Ukraine, are experiencing acute fuel shortages. The crisis is compounded by several factors: failed refineries, low reserve levels at retail chains, and the economic burden of high interest rates making it difficult for regional gas station operators to stockpile supplies. Some stations in Belgorod and Vladimir have shuttered their doors, unable to secure enough gasoline to meet demand.

The impact on ordinary Russians is immediate and tangible. The price of AI-92 gasoline surged past 73,200 rubles per ton at the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange on September 17—a historical maximum, according to the Ukrainian Foreign Intelligence Service. The shortage is aggravated by artificial supply restrictions from large state-owned companies such as Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz, and Tatneft. These firms are reportedly delaying contracted fuel shipments, opting to supply their own gas stations instead. For many, it’s more economically advantageous to pay a penalty for failing to fulfill market obligations than to sell gasoline at exchange prices.

Looking ahead, analysts warn the situation could worsen during the winter of 2025/2026. Russia’s dependence on fuel imports from Belarus, Kazakhstan, and China is set to increase, introducing new logistical challenges—especially for military operations in occupied territories.

Global Oil Markets Respond to Russian Disruption

The turmoil in Russia’s oil sector is reverberating through global markets. Crude prices have come under pressure from a strengthening US dollar and the prospect of increased global oil supplies, particularly as Iraq moves toward resuming pipeline exports from its Kurdistan region. Yet, the outages and attacks in Russia provide a counterbalance, threatening to tighten global oil supplies and support prices despite bearish signals elsewhere.

OPEC+ has responded to shifting market dynamics by agreeing to a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day starting in October—far less than previous hikes. The group’s overall strategy remains cautious, with further restoration of idled production contingent on market conditions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a rising global crude surplus by 2026, but recent events in Russia inject significant uncertainty into these projections.

Meanwhile, US crude inventories and production figures have shown slight declines, providing additional support for global oil prices. The number of active US oil rigs remains near multi-year lows, signaling a cautious approach from American producers as market volatility persists.

Political Tensions and Economic Ramifications

Beyond the economic fallout, the oil crisis is deeply entwined with escalating political tensions. The ongoing war in Ukraine, and the threat of further sanctions against Russian energy exports, loom large. US officials have floated the idea of imposing tariffs as high as 100% on nations like China and India for their purchases of Russian oil, aiming to increase pressure on Moscow to end the conflict.

Regional security concerns are also mounting. Estonia, a NATO member, recently accused Russia of a “brazen” airspace violation, highlighting Moscow’s increasingly provocative behavior on the alliance’s eastern borders. The intersection of military, economic, and energy interests is creating a volatile environment—one in which oil is both a weapon and a vulnerability.

Inside Russia, the Ministry of Energy has scrambled to adjust refinery maintenance schedules and coordinate with oil companies to boost gasoline supplies. Yet, with 13 refineries—representing a combined annual capacity of 119.2 million tons—failing since August 2, the challenges remain formidable. The government’s push to prioritize domestic needs may offer short-term relief, but the longer-term effects on exports, revenue, and public sentiment are far from certain.

For Russian consumers, the pain is immediate. Gas stations closing, prices spiking, and uncertainty about winter supplies are becoming part of daily life. For the Kremlin, the stakes are higher still: balancing economic stability, public satisfaction, and the strategic imperatives of an ongoing war.

As Russian oil refineries reel from Ukrainian attacks and systemic market failures, the crisis reveals how energy infrastructure sits at the crossroads of war, economics, and geopolitics. While Moscow scrambles to adapt, the global oil market watches closely—knowing that disruption in Russia’s refineries today could shape the world’s energy future for years to come.