Quick Read
- Finance Secretary Shona Robison unveiled Scotland’s 2026-27 draft budget, her last before stepping down.
- The budget proposes nearly £68bn for wellbeing, part of a larger £200bn investment plan.
- Scottish Child Payment to increase to £40 per week for children under one, effective 2027-28.
- Two new council tax bands for properties over £1m will be introduced by 2028.
- The SNP government, a minority, needs opposition support to pass the budget amid a projected £5bn fiscal shortfall.
In a pivotal moment for Scotland’s political landscape, Finance Secretary Shona Robison has unveiled the Scottish National Party (SNP) government’s draft budget for 2026-27. Presented at Holyrood just four months before a crucial Scottish parliament election, these spending and tax plans are designed not only to steer the nation’s finances but also to capture the electorate’s confidence, hoping to extend the SNP’s tenure in power. This budget also marks a significant personal milestone for Ms. Robison, as it is her final one before stepping down as an MSP in the upcoming May election.
The central theme of Ms. Robison’s address was a commitment to Scottish families, a stronger National Health Service (NHS), and robust investment in the nation’s vital infrastructure. The draft budget earmarks an impressive nearly £68 billion for the wellbeing of Scotland’s populace. When viewed in conjunction with the broader Scottish Spending Review and Infrastructure Investment Pipeline, the total investment across various sectors is projected to reach almost £200 billion. These figures underscore the government’s ambitious vision for long-term growth and stability, despite the immediate fiscal pressures.
Key Investments and Tax Adjustments to Shape Scotland’s Future
Among the standout proposals, the Scottish Child Payment is set for a substantial increase, rising to £40 per week for families with a child under the age of one. This represents a significant uplift from its current rate of £27.15 per week and is slated to come into force at the start of the 2027-28 financial year. This move is a clear signal of the government’s focus on alleviating child poverty and supporting young families, a cornerstone of its social policy.
On the taxation front, the budget introduces two new council tax bands, which are expected to be implemented by 2028. These new bands will specifically target properties valued at more than £1 million, signaling an intent to generate additional revenue from higher-value assets. This measure aims to ensure that those with greater means contribute more to public services, aligning with the SNP’s progressive taxation philosophy. However, such tax adjustments often spark debate, with opposition parties frequently arguing for broader tax cuts or different revenue-generating strategies.
Navigating Fiscal Constraints and Political Opposition
The unveiling of the budget is never a simple affair, especially in Scotland where Holyrood ministers are legally bound to balance the books. Their borrowing powers are limited, adding a layer of complexity to financial planning. This constraint is particularly pertinent given the stark warning issued by Scotland’s auditor general, who previously cautioned that the country faces a near £5 billion funding shortfall by the end of the decade. This looming deficit casts a long shadow over the current proposals, highlighting the ‘tough choices’ Ms. Robison acknowledged she had to make, as reported by BBC Scotland News.
The budget is largely funded through a block grant from the UK government, supplemented by taxes raised within Scotland. It dictates the annual allocations for critical sectors such as health, education, justice, transport, and welfare. The draft will now undergo intense scrutiny in the Scottish parliament over the coming weeks, culminating in a final vote. Given the SNP’s minority administration, securing its passage into law will necessitate garnering support from outside its own ranks. This political tightrope walk suggests a period of intense negotiation and potential concessions.
The Shadow of an Election: Opposition Responses and Future Prospects
The proximity of the May election has undeniably shaped the budget’s presentation and the subsequent reactions from opposition parties. Scottish Labour, led by Anas Sarwar, has indicated a strategic approach, with speculation that his MSPs might abstain from the final vote, effectively allowing the budget to pass without direct endorsement. Mr. Sarwar’s focus, according to Sky News, appears to be firmly on the Holyrood election itself, with promises of an ’emergency budget’ should his party come to power. His vision includes plans to fix the NHS, boost youth employment, and implement a tougher stance on justice.
Other parties have also weighed in with their demands and criticisms. The Scottish Conservatives have urged the government to consider income tax cuts, lower business rates, and increased funding for colleges and universities, arguing that households and businesses are struggling under the SNP’s current policies. Tory leader Russell Findlay called for John Swinney to give people a ‘much-needed break.’ The Greens, on the other hand, have advocated for additional support for workers affected by the closure of the Exxon Mobil plant at Mossmorran, emphasizing a just transition for industrial communities.
The Liberal Democrats, through their finance spokesman Jamie Greene, have outlined several key priorities, including increased funding for colleges, a ‘fair deal’ for island communities, action on delayed hospital discharges, and improved care for individuals with autism and ADHD. Greene’s message to the SNP was clear: ‘if we see movement and investment in these key Lib Dem priorities, then there’s a conversation to be had.’ Reform UK, with its single MSP, also called for a budget that eases pressure on families, supports businesses, and invests in the future by rebuilding colleges.
Beyond the immediate financial year, the budget package also includes a Spending Review. This review outlines the trajectory of annual budgets extending beyond 2026-27, with day-to-day resource budgets projected to 2028-29 and capital budgets reaching 2029-30. However, as noted by BBC Scotland business & economy editor Douglas Fraser, the pre-election context and Ms. Robison’s desire to avoid giving ‘ammunition to her political opponents’ meant a potential lack of detailed updates on larger capital projects, their costings, and completion timelines. Such projects include NHS national treatment centers, road upgrades, ferries, rail electrification, and flood prevention efforts. The Scottish Fiscal Commission is expected to publish its independent assessment of these plans shortly after Ms. Robison’s presentation.
The 2026-27 Scottish Budget, unveiled amidst significant fiscal challenges and an impending election, represents a delicate balancing act by the SNP government. While its proposed investments in social welfare and infrastructure aim to project stability and progress, the underlying £5 billion funding gap and the need for cross-party support underscore the inherent fragility of the current political and economic landscape. The true test of this budget will not only be its immediate passage but its long-term impact on the lives of ordinary Scots and its ability to withstand the intense scrutiny of an electorate poised to cast its verdict.