Quick Read
- Tropical Cyclone Horacio intensified to a Category 5-equivalent system on February 22-23, 2026.
- It became the strongest tropical cyclone recorded globally in 2026, with sustained winds up to 260 km/h.
- The storm developed east of Mauritius and Rodrigues Island in the Southwest Indian Ocean.
- Outer rainbands brought strong gusts and 6-8 meter seas to Rodrigues; Mauritius Meteorological Services issued warnings.
- Horacio is currently moving southward, weakening, and is expected to become a post-tropical system within 48 hours.
PORT LOUIS (Azat TV) – Tropical Cyclone Horacio rapidly intensified to a Category 5-equivalent system in the central Southwest Indian Ocean between February 22 and 23, 2026, becoming the strongest tropical cyclone recorded globally this year. The storm, which developed east of Mauritius and Rodrigues Island, reached peak sustained winds of up to 260 km/h (160 mph), prompting immediate warnings for high seas and strong gusts in the region before it began tracking southward over open waters and started to weaken.
Horacio’s rapid escalation drew significant attention from meteorological agencies worldwide, including the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) La Réunion and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Its intensity underscored the inherent dangers of such powerful weather systems, even as it primarily remained over the ocean, minimizing direct land impact.
Horacio’s Rapid Intensification to Category 5 Status
Tropical Cyclone Horacio began as a low-pressure disturbance east of Rodrigues Island on February 18, 2026, and was officially named by RSMC La Réunion the following day. Within just 48 hours, the system underwent a period of rapid intensification, fueled by warm ocean waters and favorable upper-level atmospheric conditions. By February 22, it had achieved ‘Very Intense Tropical Cyclone’ status, the highest rating in the Southwest Indian Ocean basin, a classification rarely issued.
At its peak intensity between February 22 and 23, RSMC La Réunion estimated 10-minute sustained winds reached 230 to 240 km/h (140 to 150 mph), with gusts nearing 280 to 300 km/h (175 to 185 mph) and a central pressure of approximately 910 hPa. Concurrently, the JTWC assessed 1-minute sustained winds at approximately 260 km/h (160 mph), classifying Horacio as a Category 5 equivalent cyclone on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This made Horacio the first Category 5 storm globally in 2026 and the first in the Southern Hemisphere since Cyclone Errol in April 2025, according to The Watchers and Jang.pk.
Impact on Rodrigues and Mauritius
As Tropical Cyclone Horacio tracked south-southwestward east of Mauritius, its outer rainbands brought periods of heavy rain and strong gusts to Rodrigues Island, where winds reached around 100 km/h (60 mph). Sea conditions became extremely turbulent, with waves exceeding 6 to 8 meters (20 to 26 feet). The Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) issued a Class 1 Cyclone Warning for the region until February 23, which was subsequently lifted as the system moved further away from land.
Despite the storm’s immense power, no major damage or casualties were reported on either Mauritius or Rodrigues Island. However, the MMS maintained a Heavy Swell Warning for Rodrigues, valid until February 25, advising fishermen, pleasure-craft operators, and the public to avoid venturing into the sea or along beaches due to high-energy swells of up to 7 meters (23 feet) beyond the reefs, which could also affect lagoons and low-lying coastal areas, especially during high tides, Mauritius Meteorological Services reported.
Current Status and Forecast for Tropical Cyclone Horacio
As of February 24, Horacio’s center was located approximately 315 km (196 miles) southeast of Rodrigues and was continuing its southward movement while gradually weakening. Satellite imagery from Meteosat-12, captured on February 23 by EUMETSAT, showed a symmetrical eye structure and strong convective bands during its peak intensity, a hallmark of a powerful cyclone.
Forecasters expect Horacio to continue weakening and transition into a post-tropical system within 48 hours. This weakening is attributed to deteriorating environmental conditions, including increasing vertical wind shear and declining oceanic heat potential as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Meteorologists at RSMC La Réunion noted that while a temporary decrease in shear might occur later in the week, re-intensification is unlikely. Horacio is the ninth named storm of the 2025/26 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season.
The emergence of Tropical Cyclone Horacio as the strongest storm of 2026 so early in the year highlights the ongoing intensity of the Southern Hemisphere’s cyclone season, which typically peaks between February and March. Climate scientists have consistently noted that rising global temperatures are expected to increase the proportion of tropical cyclones reaching Category 4 and 5 strength, even if the overall number of storms does not significantly change, underscoring a growing concern for extreme weather events.