Trump’s Venezuela Takeover: China’s Oil Loss, Russia’s Taiwan Gambit, and a Shifting Global Order

The global stage has been dramatically reset following President Donald Trump’s decisive intervention in Venezuela, culminating in the swift deposition of Nicolás Maduro. Speaking just hours after the operation, Trump declared, “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again.” While the immediate focus was on Caracas, the ramifications of this bold move extend far beyond the Americas, fundamentally altering geopolitical calculations for major powers, particularly China and Russia, and potentially reshaping the very norms of international sovereignty. Now, in early 2026, the world grapples with the fallout of an event that many observers, including the Telegraph, once deemed an improbable “made-for-Netflix moment.”

China’s Strategic Energy Setback and U.S. Leverage

For China, the Venezuelan takeover represents a significant strategic blow to its long-term energy security. Venezuela, holding the world’s largest proven oil reserves, has been a cornerstone of Beijing’s strategy to diversify its energy sources away from U.S.-controlled regions. For years, China had poured tens of billions of dollars into “oil-for-loans” deals, securing a crucial supply line. In December 2025, just before Maduro’s capture, Venezuelan oil shipments to China averaged over 600,000 barrels per day, accounting for approximately 4% of China’s total oil imports, as reported by Reuters. This made Venezuela China’s main oil buyer.

The loss of this growing partnership, seen as an “insurance policy” for China’s energy needs, is an undeniable strategic defeat. The timing was particularly poignant; Maduro had met with Qiu Xiaoqi, the Chinese government’s special representative for Latin American affairs, merely hours before his capture, underscoring the depth of their ties.

While Trump quickly moved to assuage China’s immediate fears, stating on Fox & Friends, ‘I have a very good relationship with [China’s President] Xi, and there’s not going to be a problem. They’re going to get oil,’ the long-term implications are complex. The U.S. now controls a significant energy supplier to China, granting Washington substantial leverage. Although Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is dilapidated after years of sanctions and mismanagement, American companies are poised to invest billions, promising a future resurgence in production. This potential American control over a key Chinese energy source introduces a new dynamic into the already tense U.S.-China relationship, pushing Beijing to re-evaluate its global energy strategy.

Shattered Norms: A Precedent for Beijing and Moscow?

Beyond the immediate economic and strategic shifts, the capture of a sitting head of state is a norm-shattering event with profound implications for international law and sovereignty. The U.S. action in Venezuela, with its stated intention to control the country and its resources, could be seen as a direct challenge to the post-WWII, rules-based international order. This brazen intervention raises a critical question: if the U.S. can act unilaterally in its perceived sphere of influence, what precedent does this set for other great powers?

Both Russia and China, often critical of Western interventionism, could interpret Trump’s move as an invitation to pursue their own geopolitical objectives with renewed vigor. Russia has already demonstrated its willingness to flout international norms, notably in Ukraine. The Venezuelan precedent might further embolden Moscow, reinforcing its conviction that might makes right in an increasingly fragmented world. For China, the implications are even more direct regarding Taiwan. The U.S. has historically invoked arguments about sovereignty to deter Beijing from taking military action against the self-governing island. However, with Washington itself seemingly undermining these very arguments in Venezuela, the moral and legal weight of such admonitions could be significantly diminished. This makes China’s long-standing threat to regain control of Taiwan a far more pressing concern for global stability.

The Evolving Russia-China Axis Amidst Western Pressure

The events in Venezuela unfold against a backdrop of an increasingly solidified, albeit asymmetrical, partnership between Russia and China. Western pressure, particularly in response to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, has undeniably pushed Moscow deeper into Beijing’s orbit. This alignment, while functional and resilient, sees China increasingly dictating the terms of engagement. As Indiasworld.in highlighted, the mid-November 2025 meeting in Moscow between Chinese Premier Li Qiang and his Russian counterpart, Mikhail Mishustin, underscored the growing political and economic bilateral partnership, driven largely by their shared opposition to Western influence.

This axis is not merely a tactical alliance but a strategic convergence of authoritarian powers seeking to counter what they perceive as Western hegemony. The Venezuelan crisis, demonstrating a unilateral American assertion of power, will likely serve to further cement this bond. Both nations share a common interest in challenging the unipolar world order and promoting a multipolar system where their respective spheres of influence are respected, or at least not overtly challenged by Western intervention. While tensions undoubtedly exist within this partnership, their mutual geopolitical interests and the external pressure from the West continue to foster a resilient alignment that is reshaping global power dynamics.

A New Era of Geopolitical Calculation

The ripple effects of the Venezuela takeover are still unfolding, yet it is clear that the event marks a significant turning point in international relations. From China’s scramble to secure alternative energy sources to Russia’s potential recalibration of its own assertive foreign policy, the world is witnessing a dramatic acceleration of geopolitical shifts. The erosion of long-held norms regarding sovereignty and non-intervention, coupled with the strengthening of the Russia-China axis, suggests a future where power projection may become more overt and less constrained by traditional international frameworks. The question now is not if, but how, these major powers will adapt to and exploit this new, more volatile global landscape.

The U.S. intervention in Venezuela, while framed as a move to secure American dominance, has inadvertently created a vacuum in international norms that both Russia and China are poised to exploit, fundamentally altering the calculus of global power and accelerating the transition towards a more contested, multipolar world.