Middle East Tensions Push Brent Crude Prices Toward $80

WASHINGTON (Azat TV) – A joint military action by the United States and Israel against Iran on Saturday has significantly escalated tensions in the Middle East, immediately triggering concerns about global energy market stability and the prospect of rising retail gasoline prices worldwide. The military strikes, the second time the Trump administration has targeted a major oil-producing nation this year, are anticipated to have far more severe consequences for consumers than previous interventions, directly impacting transportation costs and household budgets.

The immediate concern stems from Iran’s strategic location at the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies flow. Following the strikes, an official from the European Union’s naval mission Aspides reported that vessels were receiving VHF transmissions from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards indicating that “no ship is allowed to pass the Strait of Hormuz.” While not formally confirmed by Iran, this unverified move has fueled anxieties about potential disruptions to global energy trade. Houthi groups in Yemen have also renewed threats against shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, further exacerbating regional instability.

Geopolitical Instability and Market Reactions

Energy and geopolitical analysts are closely monitoring the situation, warning that a sustained conflict could disrupt oil production not only in Iran but also in neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia. Unlike the limited market impact observed after a U.S. military incursion into Venezuela in January, or earlier strikes against Iran, this broader campaign is expected to last ‘days not hours,’ according to a Trump administration official. Homayoun Falakshahi, an oil analyst at ICIS, noted that the severity of Iran’s retaliation options would depend on whether its top leadership had been eliminated.

Even before the U.S. oil market opened on Saturday, prices had jumped in anticipation of the attack, with crude oil reaching $67 a barrel on Friday, a $5 increase from a month prior. Analysts at investment bank Barclays projected that the global Brent crude oil benchmark could reach $80 per barrel due to U.S.-Iranian hostilities. Forbes emphasized that prices at the pump would begin rising almost immediately as new deliveries from refineries reached local gas stations. The threat extends beyond crude oil, as LNG tankers, vital for power grids and heating in many European and Asian countries, also rely on passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Consumer Impact and Regional Price Variations

U.S. consumers are urged to prepare for rising gasoline prices and other energy costs in the coming days and weeks. The U.S. attack has already drawn criticism from Democratic members of Congress, who are leveraging affordability concerns as a key issue for the 2026 midterm elections. Representative Rosa DeLauro stated, ‘Americans are demanding help with the cost-of-living crisis, but President Trump would rather start another war, potentially driving up energy prices, than listen to them.’

Recent data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) already shows an upward trend in retail gas prices. In Washington state, for example, average regular fuel prices rose for the second consecutive week, reaching $4.14 per gallon on Monday, up from $4.01 the previous week. This represents a 46-cent increase since last month. Nationally, the average U.S. gas price stood at $2.94 last week. Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the Brookings Institute, highlighted that Iran’s larger oil production capacity and strategic location make a disruption far more significant than in Venezuela, with market impacts extending beyond the U.S.

Long-Term Outlook and Production Prospects

While some analysts, like Robert Auers of RBN Energy, suggest that a regime change in Iran could open significant opportunities for international oil companies to expand production due to the nation’s vast, easily drilled reserves and sound infrastructure, others remain cautious. Jim Burkhard, vice president at S&P Global Energy, noted that regime change ‘historically does not lead to higher production quickly,’ citing concerns about security and stability for investment capital. The current well-supplied global oil market, which had seen crude prices sink to five-year lows earlier this year, has provided some buffer, but analysts warn that a tighter market would amplify the price impacts of such geopolitical events.

The immediate aftermath of the US-Israel military action against Iran underscores the profound vulnerability of global energy markets to geopolitical instability, translating rapidly into tangible cost increases for consumers worldwide.