Quick Read
- Ursula von der Leyen warns of Russia’s deliberate hybrid war against the EU, involving airspace violations, cyberattacks, and sabotage.
- She urges EU members to unite, strengthen defense, and build a pan-European anti-drone shield.
- The proposed ‘drone wall’ aims to protect all EU borders, not just the eastern flank.
- Von der Leyen emphasizes investment in European defense industry and a strategic roadmap by 2030.
- EU officials fear the risk of Russian attack on another European country in the next 3-5 years.
Russia’s Grey Zone Tactics: The New Face of European Security Threats
In the hushed corridors of Strasbourg, Ursula von der Leyen’s voice rang clear: Europe is under a deliberate, targeted campaign of hybrid threats orchestrated by Russia. This isn’t just about tanks or fighter jets—the battleground has shifted, and the weapons are subtler, often invisible. Airspace violations, mysterious drones buzzing over strategic sites, cyberattacks, and undersea cables severed in the dark. According to von der Leyen, these incidents are no longer isolated or accidental—they form a coherent, escalating pattern designed to unsettle citizens and fracture the European Union’s resolve.
Her warning was stark. “Something new and dangerous is happening in our skies,” she told lawmakers, listing incursions in Poland, Romania, Estonia, Denmark, Belgium, and Germany. Some incidents are traceable to Moscow; others remain shrouded in ambiguity. But the discomfort is palpable: Is Europe prepared to intervene, especially as drones—cheap, effective, and hard to detect—become the tool of choice for modern warfare?
Von der Leyen did not mince words. The campaign, she said, is calculated to linger in “the twilight of deniability.” It’s a strategy that tests Europe’s unity, divides member states, and seeks to weaken support for Ukraine. “This is not random harassment. It is a coherent and escalating campaign to unsettle our citizens, test our resolve, divide our Union, and weaken our support for Ukraine,” she declared, calling it by its name—hybrid warfare.
Hybrid War: Beyond the Battlefield
What exactly is hybrid warfare? Von der Leyen explained it as a mix of methods—disinformation, cyberattacks, sabotage, and even military provocations—all intended to destabilize an adversary without overt confrontation. This isn’t a new concept, but the scale and sophistication are unprecedented. Undersea cables cut, airports and logistics hubs paralyzed, elections targeted by malign influence campaigns. All these, she argued, are part of Russia’s grey zone offensive.
“Two incidents are coincidence, but three, five, ten? This is a deliberate and targeted grey zone campaign against Europe,” she stressed. It’s a pattern, not a series of accidents. The message: Europe must investigate every incident, attribute responsibility, and protect every square centimeter of its territory.
She invoked the EU’s founding mission—to preserve peace—but noted that peace now requires a new kind of vigilance. “Living in peace means strengthening the collective ability to deter aggression and provocation, and to adapt to the changing nature of warfare.”
Building Europe’s Shield: The Anti-Drone Wall and Defense Roadmap
Von der Leyen’s response is both practical and ambitious. The centerpiece: an anti-drone shield—dubbed the “drone wall”—along the EU’s eastern flank. The project has captured the imagination and concern of European leaders, becoming a focal point at recent summits in Copenhagen and Brussels. The concept is simple: rapid detection and neutralization of drones, learning from Ukraine’s experience, and ensuring Europe’s skies remain secure.
Yet, as with any ambitious plan, unity is not guaranteed. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron have questioned the feasibility of such a wall. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni argue it should protect all EU borders, not just the east. These debates reveal fault lines in the EU’s approach to collective defense.
Von der Leyen responded directly to critics, insisting the shield must be a “360-degree approach,” covering the southern flank and addressing threats from natural disasters, organized crime, weaponized migration, and the so-called Russian shadow fleet. “It should be designed to address a wide spectrum of challenges,” she explained, emphasizing that Europe’s security is indivisible.
The roadmap goes beyond drones. By 2030, the Commission aims to improve capabilities in nine key areas: air defense, artillery, electronic warfare, cyber-response, and more. The plan is coordinated closely with NATO, signaling a new era of transatlantic cooperation.
“Made in Europe”: Strategic Investment and Industrial Policy
Security isn’t just about hardware; it’s about where that hardware comes from. Von der Leyen stressed the need for increased defense spending to benefit European industry, not just foreign suppliers. This “Made in Europe” preference, championed by France, is slowly gaining traction, although some member states prioritize immediate needs over domestic production.
The Commission President is adamant: investing in Europe’s own defense sector will yield long-term returns, bolster technological sovereignty, and reduce vulnerability to external shocks. She urged governments to think strategically and ensure every euro spent strengthens Europe’s resilience.
Testing Europe’s Resolve: Unity or Division?
At the heart of von der Leyen’s speech is a challenge: will Europe unite, or will it falter? “The choice before us is simple,” she told lawmakers. “We can either shy away and Russian threats escalate, or we meet them with unity, deterrence and resolve. I know which side we will choose.”
Her call for a “completely new mindset” is a tacit acknowledgment that old ways of thinking are inadequate for the era of hybrid threats. It’s not just about jets and tanks, but software for drones, spare parts for pipelines, rapid cyber-response teams, and public information campaigns. The complexity of the challenge demands innovation and courage.
European officials believe the risk of Russian attack on another European country is real—within the next three to five years. The urgency is palpable. The EU will present a defense roadmap at an upcoming Brussels summit, hoping to hammer out concrete plans for joint projects and a unified response.
As the debate continues, one thing is clear: Europe’s security is at a crossroads. Hybrid warfare tests not just borders, but the very idea of European unity. The outcome will shape the continent’s future.
Von der Leyen’s warning signals a paradigm shift in European defense policy. Her call to action is rooted in real, escalating threats—and the EU’s response will be a litmus test for its unity, resilience, and ability to adapt. The challenge is not just technical, but political: forging consensus across diverse interests to confront a shadowy adversary. Success will depend on whether Europe can move beyond comfort zones and build a truly collective shield—one that protects every citizen, in every corner of the Union.