Why Conservative MPs Are Defecting: Inside the Liberal Surge and Tory Struggles

Conservative MPs Cross the Floor: A Season of Political Upheaval

In the waning days of 2025, Ottawa’s political landscape is in flux. Conservative MPs, once steadfast in their loyalty, are now crossing the floor to join the Liberals—a move that’s rattled the very core of Canada’s opposition party. The latest and most dramatic defection is Markham–Unionville MP Michael Ma, whose abrupt switch caught nearly everyone off guard, including his own staff and the colleagues he’d recently celebrated with at the Conservative Christmas party.

The timing couldn’t be more symbolic. Just hours after exchanging Secret Santa gifts with his Conservative peers, Ma announced his allegiance to the Liberals, sparking outrage and disbelief. Conservative MP Kurt Holman summed up the mood on social media: “I gave him an Amazon Fire Stick just hours before he crossed the floor. Now I want my gift back, just like the people of Markham—Unionville want their votes back!”

Liberal Majority Within Reach

For the Liberals, Ma’s move is a windfall. The party is now just one seat away from clinching a majority after a tumultuous parliamentary session, during which only one minor bill was passed. At the Liberals’ Christmas party, the mood was jubilant. MP James Maloney posed the question, “What’s everyone’s favourite number?” His co-host Mona Fortier replied, “171,” referencing the number of seats needed for a majority, drawing cheers from the crowd. The excitement was palpable, and Ma’s switch seemed to signal momentum that could tip the scales in Parliament.

As reported by National Post and analyzed on CTV News, this surge has emboldened Liberal MPs, shifting their focus from wondering if more Conservatives will defect to speculating when it will happen. The message from Liberal leadership is clear: dissatisfaction within the Conservative ranks could bring more MPs across the aisle, further consolidating Liberal power.

Conservative Turmoil: Leadership Under Fire

The Conservative Party, meanwhile, is reeling. Three MPs have left the caucus in just five weeks—Michael Ma and Chris d’Entremont to the Liberals, and Matt Jeneroux announcing a pending resignation. According to one Conservative insider quoted by the National Post, “I expect two more, at least. Poilievre will continue to die a death of 1,000 cuts.” The remark underscores the simmering dissatisfaction with party leader Pierre Poilievre, whose leadership style is described by some colleagues as out of touch and stubborn.

This internal strife is set against the backdrop of Poilievre’s upcoming leadership review in January, a critical juncture that could determine the future direction of the party. As rumors swirl, some suggest further defections could follow the review, especially if Poilievre fails to address growing concerns within his caucus. Conservative MP Jamil Jivani urged his colleagues not to lose heart, posting on X, “You are right to believe our country needs better leadership. The status quo isn’t working. Keep fighting until we get a federal government that the great Canadian people deserve.”

Behind the Scenes: Secrets and Surprises

The secrecy surrounding Ma’s departure has added to the drama. Until the very last moment, Ma continued to attend Conservative events, vote with his former party, and even publicly criticize the Liberal budget. Liberal MPs themselves were in the dark, scrambling to rewrite speeches minutes before their Christmas party to reflect the sudden change. As one Liberal MP told National Post, “In caucus Wednesday… there was zero, zero, zero hint. Everything is done very, very underground.”

This cloak-and-dagger approach highlights the volatility within the Conservative ranks. The fear now is that more MPs are quietly weighing their options, ready to make a move if the timing is right. Government House Leader Steven MacKinnon acknowledged as much, stating that a “minority” within the Conservative caucus is unhappy with Poilievre’s leadership and the party’s direction.

The Road Ahead: Uncertainty and Opportunity

As Parliament heads into the holiday break, the political climate remains tense. Liberals are buoyed by the prospect of a majority, while Conservatives are grappling with internal divisions and the looming specter of more defections. Analysts, including those featured on CTV News, suggest that Ma’s switch could be the catalyst for further exits, especially as Carney’s message of unity and momentum continues to resonate.

For now, both parties are in a holding pattern. The Liberals are counting their seats and preparing for potential new arrivals, while Conservatives are focused on damage control—hoping to stem the tide and rebuild trust within their ranks. The coming weeks, especially after Poilievre’s leadership review, could prove decisive for both sides.

What’s clear is that the current wave of defections is more than just a seasonal blip; it’s a reflection of deeper currents within Canadian politics. As MPs weigh loyalty against opportunity, and parties recalibrate their strategies, the stakes have rarely been higher.

Assessment: The recent defections from the Conservative Party to the Liberals are symptomatic of deeper fractures within the Tory ranks, particularly around Pierre Poilievre’s leadership. While the Liberals stand to gain a crucial majority, the Conservatives face a pivotal moment: either adapt to the discontent within their caucus or risk further erosion of their political base. This episode is a stark reminder that party unity, trust, and responsive leadership are essential to weathering political storms.