Quick Read
- NOAA has predicted a 60% chance of an above-normal hurricane season in 2025.
- The forecast includes 13–19 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes.
- Warmer ocean temperatures and weak wind shear are fueling higher activity.
- The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 annually.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its much-anticipated forecast for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting above-normal activity for the tenth consecutive year. With 13 to 19 named storms expected, including up to 10 hurricanes and as many as five major hurricanes, coastal and inland communities are bracing for another challenging season. The announcement underscores the growing intensity of tropical storms, fueled by a combination of warmer ocean temperatures, weak wind shear, and climate conditions favorable for hurricane formation.
The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast
On May 25, NOAA unveiled its official outlook, predicting a 60% chance of an above-average hurricane season. This forecast includes 13–19 named storms, with 6–10 expected to strengthen into hurricanes and 3–5 likely becoming major hurricanes. These figures are well above the historical average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, based on data from 1991 to 2020.
Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm emphasized the importance of preparedness, stating, «It only takes one landfalling storm to cause catastrophic damage, regardless of the season’s overall activity.» The Atlantic hurricane season officially spans from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity typically occurring between mid-August and mid-October.
Why This Season Could Be More Intense
A confluence of factors is driving this year’s above-average forecast. NOAA identified the neutral phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle as a significant influence. Unlike El Niño, which tends to suppress hurricane activity, ENSO-neutral conditions create a more favorable environment for storm formation. Coupled with unusually warm sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Basin, these conditions provide the energy necessary for storm development.
Additionally, weak wind shear—another critical factor—allows storms to grow and sustain their intensity without disruption. The West African Monsoon, a weather system known for spawning tropical cyclones, is also expected to be more active this year. Together, these elements create a perfect storm of conditions conducive to a busy hurricane season, as highlighted by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Technological Advances in Hurricane Forecasting
NOAA has also introduced new tools and technologies to improve the accuracy of its forecasts. The agency’s Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) is undergoing an upgrade that is expected to enhance storm tracking accuracy by 5%. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick remarked, «With these advanced weather models and cutting-edge tracking systems, we’ve never been more prepared for hurricane season.»
Ken Graham, director of NOAA’s National Weather Service, also stressed the importance of real-time forecasting: «Our goal is to provide timely, actionable information to protect lives and property. We encourage communities to take proactive steps now to prepare.»
The Human and Economic Toll of Hurricanes
The impacts of hurricanes extend far beyond coastal areas. In 2024, storms like Hurricane Helene caused devastating inland flooding, highlighting the importance of preparation for all communities, not just those along the coast. Between 1970 and 2021, tropical cyclones were the leading cause of weather-related human and economic losses worldwide, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
However, advancements in early warning systems have significantly reduced fatalities. The death toll from tropical cyclones decreased from over 350,000 in the 1970s to less than 20,000 in the 2010s. Despite these improvements, economic losses remain staggering. Hurricanes in 2024 alone caused billions in damages, with Hurricane Milton contributing $34.3 billion in losses to southern Florida.
Laura Grimm reiterated the importance of NOAA’s role in mitigating these impacts: «Our mission is to save lives and minimize economic losses through accurate and timely forecasts.»
How Communities Can Prepare
Experts stress that preparation is key to minimizing the impacts of hurricanes. Michael Brennan, director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, urged inland communities to prioritize flood preparedness. «It’s not just the wind; freshwater flooding has been a significant source of fatalities in recent years,» he said during a recent press briefing.
Residents in hurricane-prone areas are encouraged to create emergency plans, stock up on essential supplies, and stay informed through reliable weather updates. NOAA’s forecasts serve as a critical resource for communities, enabling them to take proactive measures well ahead of any potential storms.
As the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season approaches, NOAA’s forecast is both a warning and a call to action. With the potential for above-average activity, preparation and vigilance will be essential to weathering the storms ahead.