The United Transition Cabinet of Belarus, an exiled opposition group, has formally warned Ukrainian authorities that Minsk may be preparing to directly enter Russia’s war against Ukraine. The warning, delivered to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha on June 22, highlights a significant shift in Belarusian domestic policy toward a wartime posture.
According to the document, Belarus has significantly increased military spending, doubled the recruitment of contract soldiers, and initiated the militarization of its society. The opposition report emphasizes that constitutional changes have effectively stripped Belarus of its status as a neutral, non-nuclear state. Additionally, a 2024 military doctrine now allows for preemptive strikes against perceived threats.
These developments coincide with rising diplomatic friction. On June 18, President Volodymyr Zelensky issued an ultimatum to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, demanding the removal of signal repeater equipment used to guide Russian Shahed-type drones toward Ukrainian targets. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed on June 22 that Vladimir Putin intends to discuss this ultimatum with Lukashenko in the near future.
While fears of direct Belarusian military involvement have persisted since 2022, Ukrainian officials remain focused on deterrence. National Guard commander Oleksandr Pivnenko stated on June 22 that any renewed offensive from Belarusian territory would require a force of at least 70,000 troops. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces have signaled that defensive plans are already in place, with potential targets inside Belarus identified should Minsk cross the threshold into direct combat.