Eritrea Faces New War Fears, Mass Detentions, and Deepening Uncertainty

Renewed Tensions With Ethiopia Stoke Fear Across Eritrea

For Eritreans like Tewolde, the specter of war is never far away. Decades after Eritrea’s bloody struggle for independence and a devastating border war in the late 1990s, the country once again finds itself bracing for conflict with neighboring Ethiopia. The streets of Asmara, Eritrea’s capital, hum with anxiety as rumors swirl and old wounds are reopened. “If the war starts, many people will go to the front and, as before, many children will lose their fathers, mothers will lose their husbands, parents will lose their children,” Tewolde confides, his voice echoing the dread felt by thousands. His identity, like those of many others, is shielded for safety—speaking out in Eritrea remains perilous, with dissidents often disappearing into prisons without a trace.

The roots of this latest standoff trace back to the uneasy peace that followed the Tigray war. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed of Ethiopia, once hailed for a Nobel Peace Prize-winning agreement with Eritrea, now finds himself at odds with President Isaias Afwerki’s regime. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea of military provocation; Eritrea, meanwhile, fears that Ethiopia aims to seize its vital Red Sea port at Assab. The mutual suspicion is palpable: Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos recently declared that “Eritrean aggression and provocation is making further restraint more and more difficult.” (France24, Guardian.ng)

Mass Conscription and Human Rights Concerns

For many Eritreans, conflict is not just a distant threat but a constant reality. The country’s notorious system of lifelong conscription and national service—likened by the United Nations to modern slavery—forces civilians into military or state service indefinitely. The fear of being sent to the front lines drives thousands to flee the country each year, seeking safety in Ethiopia, Sudan, or farther afield. Mehari, who fought in the Tigray war and witnessed its horrors, describes a generation on the run: “Young people are fleeing en masse to Ethiopia… and to Sudan to avoid a possible war.”

Women and families live under constant fear, haunted by the loss and uncertainty of previous conflicts. Luwan, an Eritrean now living in exile, recounts how her relatives were summoned by authorities and told to “prepare herself, her sons and daughters because she was told Abiy will start a war against her and the Eritrean people.” For many, the scars of the last war in Tigray remain fresh—some mothers still don’t know the whereabouts of their children, yet are being asked to send their remaining loved ones to fight.

Longstanding Political Repression and Recent Prisoner Releases

Eritrea’s reputation as one of the world’s most closed societies is well-earned. President Isaias Afwerki has ruled since 1993, presiding over a system where dissent is crushed, press freedom is virtually non-existent, and human rights abuses are widespread. The recent release of 13 prisoners from the notorious Mai Serwa military prison, after 18 years of detention, has brought renewed attention to the country’s harsh penal system. According to BBC Somali, those released included businesspeople, police officers, and professionals who were detained in 2007 following an attempted assassination of a senior security official. Many endured years of incarceration without trial, and reports indicate that conditions inside Mai Serwa—and other prisons like Adi Abeito—are dire, with inadequate access to water, hygiene, and medical care.

Families of the detained were barred from visiting for nearly two decades. Some of those freed were notable figures: former Olympic cyclist Zeragabir Gebrehiwot, well-known businessmen Tesfalem Mengsteab and Bekure Mebrahtu, and engineer David Habtemariam, among others. The government has not issued any official statement about these releases, and dozens reportedly remain behind bars, some still without formal charges or court appearances.

A Nation Caught Between Leaders and Legacies

The current climate in Eritrea is one of deep uncertainty and division. While some fear renewed Ethiopian aggression, others feel trapped by the unyielding rule of President Isaias. Researcher and former independence activist Mohamed Kheir Omer, now in exile, sums up the dilemma: “We are torn between Isaias who does not care about his population, and Abiy who thinks only of his own legacy.” Ordinary Eritreans find themselves caught in the crossfire of these competing ambitions, unsure whether peace or further devastation awaits.

Luwan, echoing the sentiment of many, says, “Only a miracle can end this nightmare.” Her words capture the exhaustion of a people worn down by decades of war, repression, and dashed hopes.

Environmental Watch: Locust Threats Linger

While the threat of war dominates headlines, Eritrea also faces environmental challenges. The Desert Locust Bulletin from ReliefWeb notes that locust breeding along the Red Sea coasts—including Eritrea—remains a concern, although no major outbreaks have been reported within the country as of December 2025. The risk of locust swarms, which can devastate crops and compound food insecurity, is another layer of uncertainty for Eritrea’s rural population.

Looking Ahead: The Uncertain Path Forward

As Eritrea stands at this crossroads, the choices made in the coming months will shape its future. The fear of renewed war with Ethiopia, ongoing repression, and environmental threats combine to create a sense of deep unease. For Eritreans, hope is a fragile commodity, tempered by experience and the knowledge that change rarely comes easily.

Assessment: Eritrea’s current situation is marked by acute vulnerability—politically, socially, and environmentally. The convergence of renewed war fears, systemic repression, and humanitarian challenges has left citizens in a state of profound uncertainty. The government’s opaque handling of prisoner releases and lack of transparency around national security decisions only deepens mistrust. Unless concrete steps are taken towards peace, accountability, and reform, Eritrea risks perpetuating its cycle of hardship and instability.