Israeli Security Sources Cast Doubt on Iran Airstrike Goals

Multiple Israeli security sources have indicated that the recent airstrikes against Iran were not accompanied by a realistic plan for regime change, suggesting that hopes for a popular uprising were based more on wishful thinking than concrete intelligence.

The conflict, now in its fourteenth day, has seen Iran survive extensive bombing raids and the assassination of its leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The continued resistance and escalating costs are reportedly leading U.S. President Trump to consider an end to the war.

Fate of Enriched Uranium as a Key Metric

A central measure of the conflict’s success, according to former and current Israeli defense and intelligence officials, may hinge on the status of approximately 440kg of enriched uranium. This material, buried under a mountain following U.S. strikes in June 2025, is reportedly sufficient for more than ten nuclear warheads. Its continued presence in Iran could accelerate the country’s path to developing a nuclear weapon.

“These 440kg of uranium are one of the clearest litmus tests for how this war ends, whether it is a success,” stated one former senior Israeli defense and intelligence official involved in Iran policy. “We need to be in a position where either this material is out of Iran, or you have a regime where you are confident that it is safeguarded [inside Iran] in a very meaningful way.”

Hardline factions within Iran have long advocated for a nuclear deterrent as the ultimate guarantee of the Islamic Republic’s survival. The overwhelming military superiority displayed by U.S. and Israeli forces in the current conflict is likely to reinforce this perspective if the current leadership maintains its hold on power.

The United States is reportedly contemplating a high-risk military operation to secure the uranium, while pre-war negotiations had also explored options for Iran to relinquish the material to a third country. “It’s a high-risk game this war, because if it succeeds, it would completely change the Middle East for the best,” the former official added. “But if we bomb everything and the regime stays in power, and they continue to maintain those 400kg of uranium, I think we will be starting the countdown to an attempt by Iran to go to a nuclear weapon.”

Concerns Over New Leadership and Nuclear Ambitions

Joab Rosenberg, former deputy head of Israel’s military intelligence research division, characterized any war outcome leaving the uranium in Iranian hands as a pyrrhic victory. He warned via social media that such a scenario would inevitably lead Iran to pursue a nuclear bomb, turning any perceived victory into a strategic loss.

The assassination of Ali Khamenei, who had directed significant resources into Iran’s nuclear program but refrained from authorizing a weapon, introduces further uncertainty. The intentions of his successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, regarding the nuclear program are less clear. “With [Ali] Khamenei we knew almost everything about his decision making,” observed another former senior intelligence official. “He was doing a lot of things we were concerned about, and that’s why there was a war. But he never took the decision to run [to a bomb] no matter what. With Mojtaba, I am not so sure we have the knowledge to assess what he will do with the nuclear programme,” the source added. “He could run to a bomb right now.”

While the widespread devastation from Israeli and U.S. bombing is expected to impede nuclear weapon development, the political decision to pursue a bomb could proceed even with diminished technical capacity.

Broader Conflict and Civilian Impact

The conflict, now in its thirteenth day, has extended beyond Iran, with civilian ships in the Gulf being targeted. At least 18 ships have been struck since the war began, according to reports. Iran has retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Gulf states, including Bahrain, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. The Israeli military has reported a significant wave of attacks in Lebanon alongside further strikes within Iran.

Human rights organizations report a high civilian toll, with over 1,276 civilians, including at least 200 children, killed since February 28th. Seven U.S. service members have also died. U.S. and Israeli forces have conducted extensive strikes across Iran, targeting leadership, military infrastructure, and the energy sector. Satellite imagery has confirmed damage to facilities including Natanz, missile sites, and naval bases, with Iranian officials reporting destruction of numerous ships.

Tragically, a primary school in Minab was hit on February 28th, resulting in at least 168 deaths, including children. Analysis suggests the munition used was a U.S. Tomahawk missile, though experts note neither Israel nor Iran are known to possess such weapons.

UK’s Role and Prestwick Airport

The U.S. military’s use of Prestwick Airport in Scotland has drawn scrutiny, with First Minister John Swinney seeking clarification from the UK government. While the UK Ministry of Defence stated that U.S. bases were authorized for defensive missions, evidence suggests planes transiting through Prestwick have supported offensive operations against Iran. Specifically, three U.S. Air Force Boeing KC-135 Stratotankers stopped at Prestwick in February en route to Israel, subsequently flying numerous missions eastward towards Iran. Defense analysts emphasize the crucial role of such mid-air refuelling aircraft in supporting operations over a vast country like Iran, potentially refueling both U.S. and Israeli aircraft.

The ongoing conflict highlights a potential strategic miscalculation by the U.S. and Israel, where military action aimed at weakening Iran may inadvertently strengthen its resolve to pursue nuclear weapons if the current regime survives and the enriched uranium remains unaccounted for.