Quick Read
- Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi said a Chinese attack on Taiwan could trigger Japanese military response.
- China reacted with outrage, economic measures, and diplomatic protests.
- Trump held calls with both Xi Jinping and Takaichi but avoided public commitment on Taiwan.
- The U.S. recently approved nearly $1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan.
- Regional tensions remain high, with ongoing military and diplomatic maneuvering.
Japan’s New Taiwan Doctrine: A Historic Shift
In late November 2025, the diplomatic climate in East Asia shifted dramatically. Japan’s newly elected Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, publicly declared that any hypothetical Chinese military action against Taiwan could threaten Japan’s survival and trigger a military response from Tokyo. For decades, Japan’s policy on Taiwan has been intentionally ambiguous. This new, explicit stance broke with tradition and sent shockwaves through the region.
China, which regards Taiwan as the “core of core interests,” responded with fury. Beijing took the dispute to the United Nations, issued travel advisories for its citizens, and initiated economic retaliation targeting Japanese seafood, entertainment, and other sectors. The message was clear: China would not tolerate what it sees as a provocation on its most sensitive issue.
U.S. Involvement: Quiet Support, Calculated Moves
Amid rising tensions, President $1 Trump re-entered the diplomatic scene. On Monday, he placed surprise calls to both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi. While the White House did not confirm these calls, both Beijing and Tokyo indicated Trump had initiated the conversations. The timing was not accidental. Trump’s outreach occurred just as China condemned Japan’s plan to deploy missiles on an island near Taiwan and after Japan scrambled fighter jets in response to a Chinese drone flying between Taiwan and the Japanese island of Yonaguni.
Trump’s public statements avoided direct reference to Taiwan, focusing instead on broader issues: trade, fentanyl, and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Yet, in her remarks to reporters, Takaichi emphasized that she reaffirmed Japan’s close cooperation with the U.S. during her call with Trump, a message echoed by the U.S. ambassador to Japan, George Glass, who stated Tokyo could count on American support against Chinese “coercion.”
What’s notable is the U.S. approach—supportive but intentionally muted. According to Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University, this signals that “from the U.S.’ perspective, there is nothing about Taiwan that has changed.” In other words, Washington is committed to Taiwan’s defense but is wary of escalating the situation further in public.
China’s Response: Economic Pressure and Strategic Messaging
China’s reaction extended beyond diplomatic protest. The government moved quickly to advise against travel to Japan and imposed restrictions on Japanese goods and entertainment. These actions underscored Beijing’s willingness to use its economic clout to punish countries taking a pro-Taiwan stance.
China also accused Japan of “creating regional tension and provoking military confrontation” with its missile deployment plans. The incident involving the Chinese drone near Yonaguni further heightened anxiety, with Japan forced to scramble its air force in response. All this occurred against a backdrop of rising military activity in the region, with the U.S. recently approving nearly $1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, including advanced missile systems and fighter jet parts—moves consistently criticized by Beijing.
Regional Security: What’s at Stake?
Taiwan remains at the heart of the dispute. While the island is a former Japanese colony, it has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party. Taiwan’s Premier Cho Jung-tai reasserted that “the Republic of China is a fully sovereign and independent nation,” rejecting Beijing’s calls for reunification.
The strategic calculus for all parties is complex. For Japan, the proximity of Taiwan—just 70 miles from Japanese territory—makes any conflict a direct threat. For China, maintaining its claim over Taiwan is non-negotiable. The U.S., meanwhile, is legally bound to provide defensive weapons to Taiwan but avoids explicit commitments to military intervention.
As Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Studies at Nanjing University, noted, the Trump-Xi call was a “very good signal” that strategic competition between the U.S. and China is under control, even if a “dramatic breakthrough is hard to imagine.” Notably, Taiwan was not mentioned in the official summaries of recent U.S.-China meetings, an omission that speaks volumes about the delicacy of the situation.
The Road Ahead: Uncertainty and Caution
Japan’s more assertive posture has introduced new uncertainty into an already volatile region. China’s economic and diplomatic reprisals serve as warnings to other countries considering similar moves. For its part, the U.S. is walking a tightrope—providing support to allies while avoiding actions that could tip the balance toward open conflict.
In the coming months, diplomatic engagement will continue. Trump is set to visit Beijing in April, followed by a reciprocal visit from Xi later in the year. Whether these meetings will address Taiwan directly remains to be seen. The fact that Taiwan was omitted from Trump’s post-call remarks may reflect a deliberate strategy to keep the issue from boiling over.
For now, the people of Taiwan, Japan, and the broader region are left to navigate the uncertainty. The risk of miscalculation remains real, but so does the opportunity for dialogue and restraint.
Japan’s bold rhetoric on Taiwan has exposed longstanding fault lines in East Asian security, forcing both China and the U.S. to recalibrate their strategies. As regional powers test the limits of diplomacy and deterrence, the outcome will depend on whether leaders can keep tensions in check—or whether a single misstep could change the region’s trajectory for years to come.