Jaylen Warren’s Rising Role: Steelers’ Zone Scheme Could Spark Breakout in Dublin

Jaylen Warren’s Backfield Rise: Numbers and Nuance

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, change isn’t just about a new season—it’s about the subtle, strategic adjustments that can reshape a team’s identity. Enter Jaylen Warren, the undrafted running back whose role has quietly but steadily grown, especially as the Steelers prepare to face the Minnesota Vikings in Dublin for Week 4 of the NFL season. The international stage offers a unique lens, but beneath the spectacle lies a deeper story of scheme, opportunity, and a player on the brink of a breakout.

Steelers’ Scheme Shift: The Arthur Smith Effect

It’s not just Warren’s snap count that’s ticking upward. Since Arthur Smith took over as offensive coordinator in 2024, Pittsburgh has leaned hard into zone running concepts—an approach that caters directly to Warren’s strengths. According to Action Network, Warren has operated in a 72% to 28% split between zone and man/gap runs since Smith’s arrival. That distinction matters. Zone runs demand vision, patience, and the ability to find daylight behind a shifting wall of blockers—traits Warren has demonstrated with increasing frequency. He’s averaged 4.13 yards per carry (YPC) on zone runs since last year, outpacing his 3.35 YPC on man/gap concepts.

The numbers tell a story of efficiency, but they also hint at untapped potential. The Steelers’ offensive line, often maligned in recent years, finds itself in a more favorable matchup this week. Minnesota’s defense has developed a reputation for struggling against zone looks. Through three games in 2025, the Vikings are surrendering a whopping 4.75 yards per carry against zone runs—nearly 2.5 yards more than on other concepts. For Warren and the Steelers, the opportunity is clear: exploit the mismatch, and keep the chains moving.

Opportunity in Dublin: Red Zone Promise and Game Flow

Warren’s growing workload isn’t just about raw carries. His presence in high-leverage situations—especially in the red zone—has become hard to ignore. As highlighted by FanDuel Research, Warren has played more than three-quarters of Pittsburgh’s red zone snaps and handled an imposing 85.7% of red zone rushing attempts. While he’s already found the end zone as a receiver this season, the ground score has remained elusive despite 12 red zone carries. In a sport where opportunity is often the prelude to production, the odds (and the narrative) suggest that a breakthrough is imminent.

The broader context matters, too. The Steelers enter the Dublin matchup as slight underdogs—2.5 points, per betting markets—but the game script projects to be neutral, perhaps even favorable for the run game. Unlike earlier weeks, where Pittsburgh played from behind for long stretches, the expectation is that this contest will be a slugfest, with both teams leaning into the ground game to control tempo and field position. For Warren, that could mean 15 or more carries—enough, by most projections, to surpass the 51.5-yard prop line set by sportsbooks.

Vikings’ Defensive Vulnerabilities: A Window for Warren

While Minnesota boasts one of the league’s top pass defenses, their run-stopping credentials are less formidable. The Vikings have allowed 1.89 yards before contact per carry—significantly worse than the Steelers’ previous opponents. For context, that figure dwarfs the numbers surrendered by Seattle (1.49), the Jets (1.25), and New England (0.39). The difference isn’t just statistical; it’s structural. The Vikings’ issues stem from a combination of inconsistent gap discipline and over-pursuit, particularly on zone concepts, where lateral movement can create cutback lanes for patient runners like Warren.

Penalties, too, have plagued the Vikings, who rank among the league’s leaders in penalty yardage through three weeks. Short fields and extended drives could be the hidden ingredients that turn red zone opportunities into touchdowns. In a game where margins are thin, these details may matter as much as any headline-grabbing highlight.

Betting Perspectives: Projections and Value

The data-driven consensus is converging around Warren as a player to watch—and to wager on. Action Network projects Warren for approximately 15.5 carries at 4.0 yards per attempt, translating to roughly 62 rushing yards with a median closer to 59.5. The over on 51.5 rushing yards is drawing sharp attention, while his +155 odds for an anytime touchdown (per FanDuel) reflect his increasingly central role in the red zone. For bettors, the confluence of matchup, opportunity, and scheme creates a rare alignment of value and upside.

Yet, the risk remains. Minnesota’s defense, opportunistic and turnover-prone, has forced seven takeaways in just three games. Pittsburgh’s offensive line, for all its improvements, is still a work in progress. And Warren, for all his promise, must prove that efficiency can translate into production over a heavier workload. That, after all, is the crucible in which breakout stars are forged.

Warren’s Moment: Beyond the Numbers

For Jaylen Warren, Sunday’s game in Dublin is more than just another chance to pad his stats. It’s an audition on a global stage—a test of whether his upward trajectory can intersect with the Steelers’ evolving identity. In a league that prizes adaptability and resilience, Warren’s story is one of perseverance meeting opportunity. From undrafted free agent to potential difference-maker, his journey mirrors the ethos of the team he represents.

As kickoff approaches, the questions linger. Can Warren turn scheme and opportunity into a signature performance? Will the Steelers’ renewed commitment to zone running unlock a new level of production? For now, the only certainty is that all eyes—on both sides of the Atlantic—will be watching.

Assessment: Jaylen Warren’s rise isn’t just a statistical trend; it’s a testament to how the right player, in the right scheme, can tilt the balance in a tightly contested game. With the Steelers’ offense evolving under Arthur Smith and a vulnerable Vikings run defense on tap, Warren’s combination of vision, patience, and red zone usage positions him for a pivotal role in Dublin. If he capitalizes, this could be the moment that transforms him from promising contributor to breakout star.