Quick Read
- McGill economist Christopher Ragan warns that regional conflict in the Middle East is creating critical uncertainty for global investment.
- Max Bell School director Jennifer Welsh argues that Canada must expand its strategic partnerships to include emerging economies beyond traditional allies.
- The ongoing instability in the Strait of Hormuz is threatening global supply chains for energy and fertilizer, complicating Canada’s sovereignty agenda.
MONTREAL (Azat TV) – As the conflict in the Middle East intensifies, experts from McGill University are warning that Canada’s path toward a new foreign policy must account for both immediate economic volatility and long-term strategic positioning. The dual pressures of a widening regional war and Prime Minister Mark Carney’s evolving “sovereignty and prosperity” agenda are forcing a critical re-evaluation of how Canada interacts with a rapidly changing global order.
Economic uncertainty and the cost of conflict
The current escalation in the Middle East, centered on combat between the United States, Israel, and Iran, has sent shockwaves through global supply chains. With the Strait of Hormuz—a vital artery for nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil—under threat, experts note that the ripple effects are already reaching North American markets. Christopher Ragan, a prominent economist at McGill University, emphasized that the primary damage to the global economy is driven by the erosion of stability. “The wider the war gets, the more uncertainty it introduces,” Ragan said. “Uncertainty is a killer for investment.”
Reframing the sovereignty agenda
While the immediate focus remains on managing the fallout from energy disruptions and supply chain shocks, the long-term direction of Canadian policy is being shaped by Prime Minister Mark Carney’s vision for strategic autonomy. Jennifer Welsh, director of the Max Bell School of Public Policy at McGill, argues that this agenda requires a more nuanced approach to international relations. In a recent analysis, Welsh noted that while the Prime Minister’s coalition of like-minded nations—such as Japan, Australia, and South Korea—is a necessary starting point, it remains incomplete without deeper engagement with emerging and developing economies.
The necessity of a global partnership
Welsh suggests that Canada must pivot from its traditional role as a “Northern donor” to become a true global partner. This shift is essential for securing Canadian interests in food, critical minerals, and emerging technologies like AI. By fostering partnerships with countries in the Global South, Canada could better navigate the threats posed by great-power rivalry. According to Welsh, the current moment of global turmoil provides an opportunity for Canada to lead a pragmatic coalition that addresses shared challenges, from climate change to public health, rather than relying solely on traditional Western alliances.
The confluence of regional conflict and economic instability underscores the difficulty of maintaining a coherent foreign policy in 2026, suggesting that Canada’s ability to project influence will depend less on traditional internationalism and more on its capacity to integrate into the economic frameworks of non-traditional, emerging partners.