Quick Read
- Zohran Mamdani leads NYC mayoral race with 46% support, Andrew Cuomo follows with 33%.
- Eric Adams’ exit shifted most of his supporters to Cuomo, narrowing Mamdani’s lead.
- Mamdani is favored by Democrats, younger voters, Asian Americans, and non-religious groups.
- Cuomo’s strongest support comes from Jewish voters and segments of Republicans.
- Housing costs and ethics favor Mamdani; economy management leans toward Cuomo.
Mamdani’s Lead Shrinks as Cuomo Gains Adams’ Supporters
The race for New York City’s next mayor has entered a new, unpredictable phase. With incumbent Mayor Eric Adams officially out of the running, the latest Quinnipiac University poll reveals a significant shift: Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani’s once comfortable lead over independent candidate Andrew Cuomo has narrowed. Mamdani now holds 46% support among likely voters, while Cuomo has surged to 33%. Republican Curtis Sliwa remains steady at 15%.
Just last month, a four-way race had Mamdani at 45%, Cuomo at 23%, Sliwa at 15%, and Adams at 12%. The numbers suggest Adams’ supporters have largely pivoted to Cuomo, the three-term former governor, leaving Mamdani’s frontrunner status intact but less dominant. The gap between Mamdani and Cuomo has shrunk from 22 to 13 points, a clear sign of the race’s evolving dynamics.
Demographics and Political Fault Lines
Peeling back the layers of voter sentiment, Mamdani’s base is robust among Democrats (60%), Asian Americans (67%), younger voters aged 18 to 34 (62%), those aged 35 to 49 (60%), and voters who identify as non-religious (69%). He also leads among Black and Hispanic communities, further cementing his position as the candidate of broad progressive appeal.
Cuomo’s resurgence, however, is powered by Jewish voters, with 60% backing him. Among Republican voters, Sliwa commands 54% support, but 37% of GOP voters now favor Cuomo, indicating a potential fracture within traditional party lines.
Ethics have also emerged as a pivotal issue. More voters see Mamdani as a more ethical candidate compared to Cuomo or Sliwa. Cuomo, meanwhile, continues to grapple with the shadow of past allegations—most notably, sexual harassment claims that led to his resignation in 2021. These controversies persist, with 52% of voters viewing him unfavorably.
Policy Priorities: Housing, Economy, and Foreign Affairs
As the campaign sharpens, voters are weighing which candidate aligns best with their priorities. When it comes to lowering housing costs—a perennial concern in New York City—Mamdani leads decisively, with 48% of respondents saying he would do the best job, compared to 25% for Cuomo and 13% for Sliwa.
On economic stewardship, however, Cuomo edges ahead: 41% of voters believe he would better manage the city’s economy, while 35% opt for Mamdani and 15% for Sliwa. This split highlights the complexity of voter concerns, with experience and fresh perspectives both valued but often at odds.
The Israel-Hamas conflict has also seeped into local political discourse. Nearly half (45%) of voters say Mamdani’s views on the issue align with their own, compared to 26% for Cuomo and 13% for Sliwa. Notably, more New Yorkers express sympathy with Palestinians (43%) than Israelis (22%), reflecting broader trends in urban progressive politics. The poll was conducted before President Trump announced a new phase in the Israel-Hamas peace process, leaving room for further shifts in voter opinion.
Leadership and Representation in Washington
With Donald Trump in the White House, New Yorkers are acutely aware of the importance of having a mayor who can advocate for the city’s interests at the national level. When asked which candidate would best represent New York City in Washington, the results were nearly a tie: 35% for Mamdani, 34% for Cuomo, and 22% for Sliwa. This near-even split suggests that, despite policy and personality differences, voters see both Mamdani and Cuomo as capable of standing up to federal power.
The Cuomo campaign has tried to spin these numbers as evidence of growing momentum. “Today’s Quinnipiac poll confirms what New Yorkers are seeing across the five boroughs — this race is shifting decisively. Andrew Cuomo is up 10 points since September, while Zohran Mamdani remains stagnant and Curtis Sliwa continues to fade away,” said Cuomo spokesman Rich Azzopardi.
Yet, as Mary Snow, Quinnipiac Poll Assistant Director, cautioned, “The numbers changed but the contours of the race haven’t. Andrew Cuomo picked up the bulk of Adams’ supporters cutting into Zohran Mamdani’s lead, but Mamdani’s frontrunner status by double digits stays intact.”
The Road Ahead: A City at a Crossroads
With just weeks to go until Election Day, the contest remains fluid. Mamdani’s campaign, energized by youth and progressive activists, continues to focus on housing and ethics. Cuomo, drawing from deep political experience, is betting that his new coalition—including former Adams supporters and segments of the Jewish and Republican communities—can carry him across the finish line.
Sliwa, though steady, appears increasingly marginalized, with little change in his support base. If he were to exit the race, Cuomo’s chances could improve further, potentially turning a two-way contest into a true nail-biter.
Amid all the shifting allegiances and polling data, one thing is clear: New Yorkers are weighing not just policies and personalities, but the kind of leadership they want in an uncertain national climate. The next mayor will inherit a city grappling with housing costs, economic pressures, and the reverberations of global conflicts—all while needing to assert New York’s voice in Washington.
As the campaign barrels toward its conclusion, the only certainty is uncertainty itself. Both Mamdani and Cuomo have paths to victory, each shaped by distinct coalitions and differing visions for the city’s future.
While Mamdani remains the statistical frontrunner, the shifting support after Adams’ exit underscores the volatility of urban politics. The coming weeks will test each candidate’s ability to consolidate their base, reach undecided voters, and articulate a compelling vision for New York’s future. In this race, resilience and adaptability may matter as much as policy or experience.