- Around a million Russians emigrated after February 2022.
- 15%-45% have returned, citing financial and social challenges abroad.
- Experts predict most will not return, even if the war ends.
- Economic and political reasons drive the reluctance to return.
- Russia faces a significant loss of skilled workers due to emigration.
Introduction
Since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, a significant wave of emigration has reshaped the lives of many Russians. While the Kremlin hopes for their return, experts and emigrants themselves suggest that peace in Ukraine will not necessarily lead to a homecoming for the majority. This article delves into the reasons behind this reluctance and the broader implications for Russia.
The Scale of Emigration
In the first year of the war, approximately one million Russians left the country, driven by fear of military mobilization, political persecution, and discontent with the regime. According to the Moscow Times, between 15% and 45% of these emigrants have since returned, citing various challenges abroad. However, the majority of those who left are unlikely to return, even if hostilities in Ukraine cease.
Reasons for Returning
Those who have returned often cite financial difficulties, social isolation, and logistical barriers in their host countries. For instance, some faced challenges transferring money or extending residence permits. Others returned to regain their previous levels of income, professional status, or access to healthcare services unavailable abroad. Additionally, family obligations, such as caring for elderly parents or children, have prompted some to go back.
Why Most Will Not Return
Despite these returns, the majority of emigrants remain steadfast in their decision to stay abroad. Conversations with economic emigrants, IT professionals, and political activists reveal a complex picture. Many left not just for economic reasons but also to escape the political climate in Russia. They fear a return to a society where dissent is suppressed and pro-war sentiments dominate.
For younger emigrants and activists, the question of status in their new countries is less significant than their desire for freedom and safety. Many have found solace in communities abroad where they can express their opposition to the war without fear of repercussions.
Impact on Russia
The outflow of skilled workers has been a major shock to Russia’s economy. Alexander Auzan, head of the economics department at Moscow State University, noted that the government understands the importance of retaining human capital. Efforts have been made to maintain economic ties with emigrants, allowing them to work remotely for Russian companies. However, these measures are unlikely to convince most to return.
Life Abroad
Countries like Armenia, Georgia, and Serbia have become popular destinations for Russian émigrés. Armenia, in particular, has attracted thousands of IT professionals due to its visa-free entry and favorable conditions for tech businesses. In cities like Yerevan, emigrants have created vibrant communities, setting up coworking spaces, schools, and businesses.
Despite these efforts, integration into local communities remains limited for many. Surveys show that IT workers and political activists often use their host countries as safe havens rather than fully engaging with local societies. This reflects a broader sentiment of disconnection from Russia rather than a desire to assimilate elsewhere.
Political Awakening
For some, emigration has sparked a political awakening. Many have become more vocal in their opposition to the war and the Kremlin’s policies. They spend time reflecting on their role in Russia’s political landscape and discussing ways to support Ukraine. However, the prospect of returning to Russia remains tied to significant political changes, such as a regime change or revolution.
While the Kremlin hopes for a “year of return” in 2024, the reality is that most Russian émigrés are unlikely to go back. The war in Ukraine has fundamentally changed their relationship with their homeland, and the challenges they faced abroad have only reinforced their decision to stay. As Russia grapples with the loss of skilled workers and political dissenters, the long-term implications of this emigration wave will continue to shape its future.
Sources: The Moscow Times, The Guardian, Balkan Insight, Russia Post