Quick Read
- Silver hit a record $56.78 per ounce in late November 2025, with a monthly gain of over 16%.
- Gold maintained strength above $4,200 per ounce, but silver outpaced gold’s annual performance.
- Supply shortages in London and Shanghai, plus surging demand in India, fueled the rally.
- Fed rate cut expectations and technical outages amplified volatility and price moves.
- Industrial demand, especially from solar panels and electric vehicles, is reshaping silver’s future.
Silver’s Meteoric Rise: Breaking Records and Market Norms
On November 29, 2025, silver stunned markets worldwide by surging to a record $56.70 per ounce, a leap that capped off one of the most dramatic rallies the precious metals sector has seen in decades. According to Reuters and TechStock², this milestone came after a single-session gain of over 6%, with monthly gains reaching between 16% and 17%. Investors and analysts alike watched as silver, long seen as gold’s volatile sibling, outpaced its rival and transformed into the star performer of 2025.
Year-to-date, silver has soared approximately 94%, nearly doubling in value since January and outstripping gold’s impressive 60% rise. Looking back further, silver’s price has climbed about 163% since October 2023, when it traded near $20.70 per ounce. This sustained uptrend has forced a re-evaluation of silver’s role in both investment portfolios and industrial supply chains.
Gold Holds Strong, but Silver Steals the Spotlight
While silver made headlines, gold was no passive bystander. Spot gold hovered at $4,210 per ounce, marking a two-week high and maintaining four consecutive days of gains. Gold’s weekly advance exceeded 3.5%, and its monthly increase topped 5%. The metal reached a record high of about $4,381 per ounce in October and has mostly remained above the critical $4,000 mark. Still, silver’s performance has shifted the traditional dynamic: over the past 12 months, gold rose around 59% while silver soared about 87%.
This performance gap has analysts rethinking silver’s reputation. Historically, silver is known for its volatility, but in 2025, its leverage to gold’s bull market turned it into the true leader of the precious metals complex. As one market strategist put it, “Silver is no longer just gold’s shadow—it’s front and center.”
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The Key Catalyst
The rally’s primary spark came from shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy. Softer retail sales and producer price data, coupled with dovish commentary from officials like Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, convinced markets that an interest rate cut in December was highly probable. Within a week, the likelihood of a rate cut jumped from 30-50% to nearly 87%.
Lower interest rates traditionally boost non-yielding assets like precious metals by decreasing the opportunity cost of holding them. They also tend to weaken the dollar and bond yields—conditions that have historically favored both gold and silver. The anticipation of easier monetary policy fueled not just speculative buying but also strategic repositioning among institutional investors.
Technical Glitches and Thin Liquidity Amplify Price Moves
An unexpected technical outage on November 28 temporarily halted trading on CME Group’s Globex platform, where major gold and silver futures are listed. When trading resumed, pent-up orders flooded the market, causing a surge in prices. Gold for February delivery closed 1.3% higher, while spot silver jumped to its new record. Thin liquidity and technical disruptions magnified the rally, serving as a reminder of how market structure can exacerbate volatility in times of heightened uncertainty.
Supply Shortages: London, Shanghai, and Global Inventory Stress
Structural supply constraints added fuel to the fire. Data from the London Bullion Market Association revealed that silver holdings in London vaults dropped from about 31,000 metric tons in mid-2022 to just 22,000 tons by March 2025—a one-third reduction and the lowest level in years. Lease rates for silver spiked to the equivalent of 200% per year on an overnight basis, highlighting extreme scarcity. Urgent delivery needs even prompted air freight shipments, a rare and costly move in the industry.
India’s demand, especially during the post-harvest and Diwali festival season, intersected with this supply squeeze, propelling prices further. Meanwhile, Chinese exports hit a record high as domestic inventories in Shanghai fell to decade lows. The United States also formally classified silver as a critical mineral in 2025, reflecting strategic concerns over future availability.
Green Energy and Technology: The New Silver Frontier
Industrial demand for silver is quietly rewriting its long-term outlook. In 2024, global industrial use reached about 689 million ounces, up from 644 million the previous year. Solar panel manufacturing alone consumed roughly 244 million ounces—a sharp increase from 192 million the year before and more than double the 2020 figure. The International Energy Agency predicts the addition of 4,000 gigawatts of new solar capacity between 2024 and 2030, which could add 150 million ounces of annual silver demand by 2030.
Electric vehicles (EVs) and AI infrastructure further complicate the demand picture. While current EVs use between 25 and 50 grams of silver, future battery designs could require up to a kilogram per car if silver-based chemistries scale up. Combined with data center needs, these trends suggest that silver’s industrial role will only grow.
Persistent Deficits and Price Ratios Suggest Further Upside
Mine production of silver has declined for a decade, especially in Latin America, with the market deficit swelling to more than 500 million ounces in 2024. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of other metals, limiting the ability of producers to quickly ramp up supply.
The gold-silver ratio—a key market barometer—fell from over 100 in January 2025 to just under 77 by late November, compared to a historical average closer to 70. This shift signals that silver may have further room to run, especially if gold prices remain firm.
Analysts Forecast Strength But Warn of Volatility
Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold price target to $4,450 per ounce and expects silver to remain in deficit for a fifth consecutive year. Technical analysts note decisively bullish price charts for silver, attracting trend-following traders. Still, significant risks persist: silver’s smaller market size means sharp moves in either direction can be triggered by relatively modest flows, and a less dovish Federal Reserve could quickly reverse the rally.
Exchange-traded fund inflows, supply tightness, and industrial demand continue to support the bullish case. Yet, as recent volatility has shown, silver’s ascent is anything but predictable.
Silver’s historic rally in late 2025 is a story of supply stress, industrial transformation, and shifting monetary policy. While the fundamentals point to enduring strength, the market’s inherent volatility remains a double-edged sword. For investors and industries alike, silver’s performance is now a bellwether of both economic sentiment and technological change.