Tehran’s Crossroads: Resistance, Isolation, and the Battle for Legitimacy

Tehran’s Gamble for Legitimacy: The FATF Setback and Its Ripple Effects

On October 24, 2025, the Iranian regime suffered a blow that reverberated across its political landscape. The Financial Action Task Force (FATF), the global watchdog against money laundering and terror financing, announced that Iran would remain on its blacklist. For Tehran’s ruling elite, this wasn’t just a bureaucratic setback—it was a public verdict on their credibility, delivered mere days after the government thought it had maneuvered itself into a better international position.

For seven years, officials inside Tehran argued and fought over whether to ratify international conventions like Palermo and the CFT, hoping that aligning with these standards would bring the country some relief from the crushing weight of sanctions. But the regime’s belated approval of these measures—meant to signal reform—was met with skepticism abroad and fury at home. Instead of opening doors, Iran found itself facing deeper isolation, its system exposed as fundamentally resistant to genuine change. The gamble had backfired, and the world’s message was clear: attempts to mask terror financing and illicit financial flows with surface reforms would not suffice.

This international rebuke did more than just sting Tehran’s pride. It ignited fresh controversy within the regime, amplifying rifts between hardliners and pragmatists. Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians watched as their country’s economic woes intensified, with inflation soaring and opportunities dwindling. For many, the FATF decision was just another sign that the government’s promises of renewal were little more than smoke and mirrors.

Human Rights Under Siege: Executions and the Struggle of Political Prisoners

October 2025 will be remembered as one of the darkest months in Iran’s recent history. According to NCRI, nearly 300 prisoners were executed—one of the highest monthly figures in the last 36 years. Among them were at least seven women, marking a grim milestone not seen since the turbulent days of the 1980s. These executions weren’t just statistics; they reflected a regime gripped by fear, resorting to harsh tactics as it struggles with mounting political and economic crises.

The story of Sakineh Parvaneh, a women’s rights activist from Quchan, shines a light on the reality faced by political prisoners in Iran. Detained repeatedly for her activism, Sakineh’s latest arrest in March 2024 led to her transfer from Vakilabad Prison to Tehran’s notorious Evin Prison. Her trial was marked by the absence of legal counsel and allegations of collaboration with foreign media—charges commonly levied against those who dare challenge the status quo. Her sentence: seven and a half years behind bars, a verdict upheld on appeal.

Elsewhere, the case of Zahra Shahbaz Tabari, a 67-year-old political prisoner facing the death penalty after a “grossly unfair trial” lasting only ten minutes, has drawn international condemnation. Amnesty International has called for the immediate annulment of her sentence, highlighting how forced confessions and intimidation remain hallmarks of Iran’s judicial process.

These stories are not isolated. They are part of a broader pattern of repression that has sparked outrage both within Iran and among its diaspora. Protests have erupted in places as far-flung as Sydney and St. Gallen, with supporters of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) demanding an end to executions and the release of all political prisoners. The message is clear: accountability for crimes against humanity must become more than a slogan.

National Unity and Resistance: The View from Tehran’s Pulpit

Against this backdrop of turmoil, the narrative from Tehran’s Friday Prayers takes on added significance. Hojjatoleslam Mohammad Javad Haj Ali Akbari, the provisional leader of Friday Prayers, stood before congregants and urged unity and resistance as the only path to confront what he described as US hegemony. Referencing the upcoming anniversary of Aban 13th—marked in Iran as the National Day of Fighting Global Arrogance—Akbari drew a direct line from the 1953 coup and the exile of Imam Khomeini to the storming of the US embassy in 1979 and subsequent events. According to him, these moments are proof of a 72-year-old animosity between America and the Iranian nation.

He repeated a familiar refrain: that the United States and the Zionist regime remain the most “detested” governments worldwide, and that only steadfast unity and resistance can safeguard Iran’s identity and prosperity. The speech, part rallying cry and part history lesson, aimed to galvanize supporters at a time when internal divisions threaten to unravel the fabric of Iranian society.

Public Discontent and the Regime’s Waning Legitimacy

Yet, beneath the rhetoric, a different reality is taking shape. Forty-six years after the Islamic Revolution, Tehran’s rulers are grappling with a legitimacy crisis of their own making. Even official turnout figures from the 2023 and 2024 elections—widely seen as manipulated—show that at least 60 percent of Iranians reject the current system. Independent analysts suggest that the regime’s true support base may be as low as 10 percent.

Across the country, a new kind of protest is emerging: one that rejects both internal repression and failed regional ambitions. The slogan “Our enemy is right here—they lie, it’s not America” echoes in the streets and on social media, a direct challenge to the narrative promoted by the state. For millions, Tehran’s insistence on framing its struggle as one against foreign powers rings hollow in the face of everyday hardship.

The regime’s response has been predictable: more crackdowns, more executions, and a tightening of controls on civil society. But as the cycle of repression continues, the gap between the government and the people widens, raising questions about how long the current order can endure.

International Solidarity and the Path Forward

From Sydney to Switzerland, the global Iranian community is mobilizing. Rallies and exhibitions in support of political prisoners and against the death penalty are not just symbolic gestures—they are a call for international accountability. Organizers demand the abolition of capital punishment in Iran and the unconditional release of all those detained for their political beliefs.

At the same time, groups like Amnesty International and NCRI continue to shine a spotlight on abuses, ensuring that the stories of those like Sakineh Parvaneh and Zahra Shahbaz Tabari are not forgotten. The struggle for human rights, both inside and outside Iran, remains relentless.

Tehran stands at a crossroads, caught between its leaders’ calls for resistance and unity, and a society yearning for justice, dignity, and real change. The regime’s pursuit of legitimacy through international maneuvering and internal repression appears increasingly unsustainable, while the courage of activists and the persistence of ordinary citizens continue to illuminate paths toward accountability and reform.