The Road to Dallas Amid Shifting Polls
With less than two months remaining before the crucial November midterm elections, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance are scheduled to address the first GOP midterm convention in recent history in Dallas next week. The high-profile gathering comes at a challenging moment for the administration, as a series of newly released national polls indicate a significant decline in the president’s approval ratings among key voting demographics, including women and self-identified Republicans.
According to a new NBC News Decision Desk survey, Donald Trump’s overall approval rating has fallen to 36%, marking a record low for his current term. The poll, conducted online from August 20 to September 1 among 7,105 adults, highlighted a nearly 10 percentage point drop among Republicans who say they “strongly approve” of the president’s performance, falling to 41%, while those who “somewhat approve” rose to 39%.
Erosion of Support Among Female Voters
The president’s standing has also deteriorated significantly among female voters. Data from ActiVote’s monthly presidential approval tracker shows a steady downward trajectory over the summer. In June, Trump’s net approval among women stood at minus 16 (41% approval versus 57% disapproval). By July, that net figure slipped to minus 19. The latest ActiVote survey, conducted between August 1 and August 31 among 1,000 registered voters and published on September 1, shows Trump’s approval among women dropping to 34%, while disapproval rose to 64%—resulting in a net rating of minus 30.
This trend is reinforced by a separate national survey conducted on August 21 and 22 by Bellwether Research and Consulting. The poll of 1,604 women, which included 1,291 registered voters, found that only 32% approved of Trump’s performance. Crucially, one-quarter of the women who voted for him in 2024 now say they disapprove of his job performance.
Furthermore, an Emerson College Polling survey from August 16 and 17 of 1,000 likely voters showed a similar 30-point gender gap, with women disapproving of Trump’s performance by 62% to 32%, while male voters remained evenly split.
Economic Pressures and Foreign Policy Concerns
Christine Matthews, president of Bellwether Research and Consulting, noted that the shift away from the president is driven largely by independent and Republican-leaning women who initially supported him due to economic expectations. In the Bellwether survey, 38% of respondents identified the economy and the cost of living as their primary concerns. Matthews explained that these voters are experiencing direct financial pressure from rising grocery and gasoline prices, as well as broader concerns over tariffs and the ongoing war with Iran.
“They voted for him in ’24 for precisely the same reasons they are upset with him now,” Matthews told Newsweek, adding that voters increasingly hold the current administration accountable for persistent inflation. “It has increased under his watch and he can no longer blame Biden for it.”
The White House has actively defended the administration’s record, focusing on long-term policy goals rather than addressing the specific polling shifts. White House spokesman Davis Ingle stated, “No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more.”
Implications for Congressional Republicans
The shifting sentiment among suburban, married, and white female voters presents a significant turnout risk for congressional Republicans. Historically, midterm elections rely heavily on motivating the party’s base. Bellwether’s data shows Democrats leading among white women by 47% to 39%—a group that Republicans won by 11 percentage points (55% to 44%) in 2024. Among married women, a demographic the GOP carried by 13 points in the last election cycle, the two parties are now locked in a tie.
Matthews warned that because congressional Republicans are closely associated with the president’s platform, they may struggle to differentiate themselves. “The dissatisfaction with Trump is likely to play an outsize role in suppressing support for Republican congressional candidates because voters see that they are in lock-step with their president,” she remarked.
Some Republican lawmakers have acknowledged the urgency of addressing these kitchen-table issues. Representative Kat Cammack of Florida noted that female voters are demanding concrete economic results. “Women are telling us their top concern is affordability, and they’re going to back whoever actually delivers on it,” Cammack said. “Nobody owes us their vote. We earn it with results or we don’t earn it at all.”
Despite the challenging numbers, Trump expressed confidence during an August 30 appearance on Fox News, telling host Trey Gowdy: “For some reason, the voters tend to go the other way. I think we’re gonna do very well.” The upcoming Dallas convention will serve as a critical platform for Trump and Vance to sharpen their message and attempt to stabilize the party’s coalition before the final campaign sprint.