LOS ANGELES (Azat TV) – The National League Most Valuable Player award race has undergone its first major leadership change of the season, as Chicago Cubs center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong surpassed Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani in sportsbook betting odds. According to updated figures from DraftKings Sportsbook, Crow-Armstrong moved into the favorite position at -120 odds, pushing Ohtani to +100. The shift reflects a growing valuation gap between full-field overall contribution and primary designated hitter output, even as Ohtani initiates a structured throwing progression aimed at resuming pitching before the regular season concludes.
The Odds Landscape and Statistical Comparison
The betting market now frames the NL MVP race as a distinct two-player contest. Behind Crow-Armstrong (-120) and Ohtani (+100), distant contenders include Washington Nationals shortstop CJ Abrams (+10000) and Philadelphia Phillies power hitter Kyle Schwarber (+15000). The narrow margin between the top two candidates highlights an intriguing balance in traditional batting statistics, juxtaposed against stark contrasts in defensive and baserunning value.
At the plate, both Ohtani and Crow-Armstrong maintain identical core run-production numbers, sitting tied with 26 home runs and 71 runs batted in. Ohtani’s overall offensive line remains formidable; as the Dodgers’ daily designated hitter, he is batting .292 with 121 hits and an advanced OPS+ of 158. However, betting markets and analytical models have increasingly favored Crow-Armstrong’s comprehensive impact across all facets of the game.
Defensive Premium and Baserunning Impact
The core factor driving Crow-Armstrong ahead in the betting market is his elite performance as a full-time defensive outfielder. Crow-Armstrong has accumulated a 7.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) figure, bolstered by 30 stolen bases and 22 Outs Above Average (OAA), establishing him as one of the premier defensive center fielders in Major League Baseball.
In contrast, Ohtani’s ability to generate multi-category value has been constrained by physical physical limitations this season. During his 2025 campaign with the Dodgers, Ohtani produced a historical offensive season featuring 54 home runs and 59 stolen bases. This year, however, Ohtani has logged only 6 stolen bases. The sharp decline in running aggressiveness directly stems from physical load management, as the Dodgers attempt to minimize stress on a lingering knee issue while keeping his bat in the line-up every day.
Ohtani’s Pitching Shutdown and Mound Return Timeline
Before his pitching activity was halted on July 3, Ohtani was enjoying an exceptional dual-role season on the mound, recording a 1.79 ERA with 95 strikeouts across 14 starts. However, persistent knee soreness forced the Dodgers to shut down his pitching duties. His rehabilitation trajectory faced subsequent obstacles, including physical setbacks involving knee regression and pectoral discomfort.
The Dodgers provided a concrete update regarding Ohtani’s status prior to their home series against the Kansas City Royals. Ohtani officially began a throwing progression, taking the field for a session of catch before a game against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts confirmed that Ohtani was scheduled to throw again on Monday, with plans to gradually ramp up activity over the following week.
As noted by baseball analyst Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors, Ohtani’s build-up process differs significantly from standard pitcher rehabilitation due to his daily role as designated hitter. Without the ability to complete a standard minor league rehab assignment, the Dodgers maintain the flexibility to build his arm strength internally. This strategy aims to prepare Ohtani for potential mound appearances late in September or during the postseason, rather than forcing a rushed regular-season pitching workload.
Team Context and Historical Award Stakes
The MVP betting shift arrives during a demanding stretch for the Dodgers, who had lost eight of nine games prior to securing a 6-5 victory over the Kansas City Royals on Monday. In that contest, newly acquired starter Tarik Skubal made his home debut following his trade deadline arrival from Detroit, allowing three runs over five innings. Ohtani contributed an early RBI double and scored the go-ahead run in the seventh inning to seal the win.
If Crow-Armstrong maintains his lead and secures the MVP award, it will interrupt Ohtani’s pursuit of historical award milestones. Ohtani was previously positioned to challenge for a fourth consecutive MVP award—a milestone achieved only once in Major League Baseball history, by Barry Bonds from 2001 through 2004. Whether Ohtani can close the odds gap will depend on his offensive durability down the stretch and the extent to which his return to throwing translates into live pitching contributions before the season ends.