The Race for Home-Court Advantage
Following a hiatus for the FIBA Women’s World Cup, the WNBA resumes its 30th season today, with all 15 teams facing a high-stakes final four-game stretch. While the eight playoff teams are confirmed, the final seeding order remains fluid, creating a frantic scramble for the top-four spots, which guarantee home-court advantage in the best-of-three opening round.
According to ESPN, the Minnesota Lynx (31-9) hold the strongest position, needing only two wins in their final four outings to secure the No. 1 seed for the second consecutive year. Their primary challenger, the Golden State Valkyries (29-11), remain the only team capable of overtaking Minnesota for the top spot, though they require the Lynx to drop at least three of their remaining games due to Minnesota’s head-to-head tiebreaker advantage.
The Battle for the Mid-Tier
The defending champion Las Vegas Aces (27-13) appear locked into a battle for the No. 3 seed. Despite a slim 4% chance at climbing to No. 2, the Aces are heavily favored (96.4%) to maintain a top-four position. A’ja Wilson, who bypassed the World Cup to manage back issues, returns to a lineup bolstered by gold-medal winning guards Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray.
The most intense competition lies between the Atlanta Dream and the Indiana Fever, both sitting at 26-14. While both hold only a marginal chance at the No. 2 seed, their primary objective is the No. 4 spot. ESPN Analytics currently gives the Dream a slight edge (49.7%) over the Fever (44.7%) for that final home-court seed. Indiana faces a grueling schedule, with three of their final four games against playoff-caliber opponents, including two crucial matchups against the league-leading Minnesota Lynx.
Longshots and Postseason Outlook
The New York Liberty, Washington Mystics, and Dallas Wings round out the playoff field, though their paths to a top-four finish are statistically difficult. The Liberty (24-16) hold only a 5.1% chance of entering the top four, while the young Mystics and the Wings—led by 2025 Rookie of the Year Paige Bueckers—are looking to maintain momentum. For the Wings, the challenge is compounded by the absence of top draft pick Azzi Fudd, who is sidelined for the remainder of the season due to a knee injury.
As the regular season concludes on Sept. 24, the focus shifts to the Sept. 27 start of the playoffs. For teams like the Los Angeles Sparks, the final week carries emotional weight, notably the impending retirement of star Nneka Ogwumike, whose final career game on Sept. 24 against the Valkyries marks the end of an era.