With less than two weeks remaining before the midterm elections, national polling data published by G. Elliott Morris indicates a widening advantage for the Democratic Party alongside steep declines in approval for President Donald Trump and congressional Republicans.
A tracking survey shows Democrats holding their largest generic-ballot lead since May 2025. Among registered voters, 52% favor the Democratic candidate for the House compared to 41% for the Republican candidate, representing a 10.4-point margin. Among likely voters, the Democratic advantage expands to 12 points, with 54% supporting Democrats and 42% backing Republicans. The findings match broader national surveys pointing to voter discontent as control of Congress hangs in the balance.
Economic Strain and Sliding Approval
Public dissatisfaction centers heavily on economic conditions and cost-of-living pressures. A separate national survey released by NBC News found that 71% of U.S. adults believe the country is on the wrong track, marking the highest negative share recorded in Trump’s second term.
President Trump’s overall approval rating slipped to 34% among U.S. adults, while his disapproval rating rose to 62%, with 51% expressing strong disapproval. Economic concerns dominate voter priorities, cited by 31% of respondents. Only 18% reported being financially better off than a year ago, while 44% said their situation had worsened amid inflation running at 3.7% year over year. Majorities reported altering grocery purchases, cutting back on discretionary spending, and scaling down energy use to cope with household expenses.
Erosion on Core Issues and Voter Shifts
Beyond the economy, Trump has experienced notable erosion on issues that formed the bedrock of his 2024 campaign, including border security, immigration, and deportations. According to the tracking data, Republicans no longer hold a distinct polling advantage over Democrats on immigration or deportation policy, areas that previously favored the GOP.
The polling also details shifts among key demographic groups that supported Trump in previous contests. His approval rating sits at 21% among independents, 28% among men under 30, and 31% among Latino adults. Furthermore, self-identified Republicans show signs of friction, with Trump’s approval within his own party dropping to 76%, driven primarily by a decline among voters aligned more with the party apparatus than the broader MAGA movement.
Political Stakes Ahead of November 3
With control of both the House and Senate contested in the November 3 election, Republican candidates face a delicate strategic challenge in trying to motivate core supporters without alienating moderate and independent voters who disapprove of the administration’s trajectory.
At the same time, voters express widespread skepticism toward both major parties. While majorities disapprove of the incumbent administration, only 43% of adults hold a favorable view of the Democratic Party, pointing to lingering voter distrust across the political spectrum as campaigns enter their final fortnight.