PENDLETON, S.C. (Azat TV) – The 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina shifted dramatically on Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026, when the Raw Story cited a newly released Fox News Power Rankings forecast that reclassified the contest between Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Dr. Annie Andrews from leaning Republican to a toss-up. The unexpected rating change arrives just five days before the Nov. 3 midterm elections, rattling traditional expectations in a ruby-red state where President Donald Trump carried an 18-point victory in 2024.
According to the Fox News forecast reported by Raw Story, the tightening race reflects mounting political headwinds for the incumbent party nationally. A recent New York Times poll showed Graham and Andrews deadlocked at 48% apiece. The shifting dynamics prompted President Donald Trump to schedule a late-campaign trip to South Carolina on Thursday night to shore up support for Graham, who was appointed to the seat following the sudden July death of her brother, longtime Sen. Lindsey Graham.
Broader Senate Control Stakes
The reclassification of South Carolina is part of a broader national realignment captured in the final pre-election Power Rankings, which signaled that Republicans could potentially lose control of the Senate. Ryan Schmelz, an anchor on Fox News’s sister network LiveNOW from Fox, noted during Thursday’s broadcast that the traditional GOP stronghold moving to a toss-up represents a serious blow to the party’s legislative majority hopes.
The network’s updated forecast also shifted Ohio’s Senate race from a toss-up to leaning Democratic, where former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown held a 52% to 47% lead over Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) in a preceding poll. In total, the latest projection lists 48 seats for Democrats and 46 for Republicans, with six races remaining rated as toss-ups. Because Vice President JD Vance holds the constitutional tie-breaking vote, Republicans would theoretically retain control if they secure 50 seats, while Democratic outcomes range from a baseline of 48 up to a potential ceiling of 54 seats on a favorable night.
Key Drivers Behind the Shift
Analysts and forecasters attribute the erosion of Republican margins to several compounding national pressures, chief among them the ongoing eight-month U.S. conflict with Iran. Initiated by joint U.S.-Israeli strikes in February, the military engagement has coincided with a notable decline in presidential approval ratings. According to the Fox News analysis, Donald Trump’s public approval stood at 44% in the final pre-war survey but has since dropped to 36%.
Compounding these geopolitical strains, economic anxiety continues to dominate voter concerns across the electorate. Fox’s October survey indicated that more than eight in 10 voters are deeply concerned about inflation and energy costs. Since the war with Iran began, Democrats have capitalized on these economic pressures, opening a 16-point lead on inflation and a 12-point lead on gas prices. With early voting underway and the legislative balance hanging in the balance, both the Graham and Andrews campaigns are deploying aggressive final-week messaging to capture undecided voters.