The New Orleans Saints and Tennessee Titans square off in Nashville this Sunday, December 28, for an NFL Week 17 matchup that, while not playoff-relevant, offers intriguing angles for fans and bettors alike. With both teams officially out of postseason contention, the focus shifts to player development, pride, and—if recent form is any indication—a higher-scoring contest than their records might suggest.
Across major sportsbooks and expert columns, the Saints come into this game as slight favorites. The consensus spread hovers around New Orleans -1.5 to -2.5, with moneyline odds giving the Saints a modest edge (-125 to -148) over the Titans (+105 to +124). The game total is set at 39.5 points, with most analysts leaning toward the over, anticipating a pace that could exceed expectations.
Quarterback Play Sets the Tone
Much of New Orleans’ late-season resurgence can be traced to rookie quarterback Tyler Shough. Since taking over, Shough has led the Saints to three straight wins, including decisive victories over the Jets, Panthers, and Buccaneers. While his touchdown count during this streak isn’t eye-popping—two scores over three games—his efficiency is worth noting. Shough has completed 68% of his passes since Week 10, routinely exceeding his projected passing yard totals (272 vs. Carolina, 308 vs. the Jets), and giving head coach Kellen Moore plenty of reason to trust a pass-heavy game plan.
Moore’s offensive philosophy, centered on tempo and volume, has helped the Saints lead the NFL in pace across multiple categories. In their most recent win against the Jets, New Orleans called pass plays at a rate 12% above expectation, a trend likely to continue against a Titans defense that has struggled to contain the aerial attack.
Titans: Glimmers of Hope in a Tough Season
The Titans, meanwhile, have found a spark in quarterback Cam Ward. Ward has thrown multiple touchdowns in three consecutive games, showing increased efficiency and poise as interim head coach Mike McCoy and offensive coordinator Nick Holz have opened up the playbook. The offense, once the league’s slowest by neutral pace, has climbed to 23rd over the last month, indicating a willingness to match the Saints’ tempo.
Running back Tony Pollard stands out as a bright spot for Tennessee, averaging 4.5 yards per carry with 949 yards and five touchdowns this season. Pollard has surpassed the 100-yard rushing mark in three straight games and found the end zone three times in two weeks prior to last Sunday’s matchup with Kansas City.
Defensive Matchups: Air vs. Ground
Both defenses present contrasting strengths and weaknesses. Tennessee ranks 28th in pass defense success rate and 29th in yards per attempt allowed (7.9), making them a classic ‘pass funnel.’ Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 104.4 passer rating against the Titans—the fourth-worst mark in the NFL. New Orleans, by contrast, has allowed just 4.4 yards per play since Week 10, the best mark in the league, though the caliber of opposing quarterbacks during that stretch has been modest.
On the ground, Tennessee has been more reliable, ranking 18th in rushing yards allowed (118.7 per game). New Orleans’ run game, without Alvin Kamara (knee, ankle) and several other key contributors, remains limited, averaging just 92.8 yards per contest (30th in the NFL).
Injury Report: Key Absences and Questionables
New Orleans enters the game with a lengthy injury list, including running backs Alvin Kamara and Kendre Miller, center Erik McCoy, and multiple wide receivers (Chris Olave, Trey Palmer, Ja’Lynn Polk, Bub Means, Devaughn Vele). Tennessee also has injury concerns, especially on defense, which could further expose their secondary against Shough and Moore’s aggressive passing attack.
Recent Trends and Historical Context
The Saints have covered the spread in each of their last four games and are 5-1 ATS in their last six. However, New Orleans is just 5-14 straight up in its last 19 games and 3-6 SU in the last nine against Tennessee. The Titans are a paltry 1-7 at home this season, but their offense has hit the game total over in 12 of their last 20 contests. Weather is expected to be mostly cloudy, around 22°C (72°F) with moderate wind—ideal conditions for scoring.
Expert Picks and Betting Recommendations
Across sources like Oddsshark, Action Network, Covers, and Pickswise, the consensus is clear: New Orleans is the safer pick to win and cover the small spread, with the total likely to go over 39.5 points. Tyler Shough’s passing yards are a popular prop bet, while Tony Pollard and Cam Ward offer value in touchdown markets. The Saints’ momentum, combined with Tennessee’s defensive vulnerabilities, makes a Saints win by at least a field goal the most probable outcome.
As for the Titans, if Cam Ward continues his recent surge and Pollard maintains his production, Tennessee could keep things interesting, especially if they can exploit the Saints’ injury-riddled secondary. But with both teams out of the playoff picture, expect a loose, fast-paced game where offensive fireworks might overshadow defensive lapses.
Based on the facts and expert consensus, this matchup projects as a showcase for two rebuilding teams and their young quarterbacks. New Orleans’ edge in offensive rhythm and passing efficiency, paired with Tennessee’s defensive struggles, tips the scales toward the Saints, but expect both teams to put points on the board in a high-tempo contest.