The Somali leader’s remarks arrive at a critical diplomatic juncture. Egypt is set to host a high-stakes four-way consultative summit in the coastal city of El-Alamein, bringing together the leaders of Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, and Somalia, according to reporting by Arab News. The summit aims to coordinate regional responses to renewed armed conflict in Ethiopia, ongoing diplomatic expulsions, and mounting friction over access to strategic Red Sea ports.
Geopolitical Fault Lines in the Bab al-Mandeb
At the center of Mogadishu’s security concerns is the self-declared republic of Somaliland, which broke away from Somalia in 1991. While unrecognised by the United Nations or any global power for over three decades, Somaliland secured formal recognition from Israel in December, setting off deep alarm bells in the federal capital. Somaliland encompasses the strategic port city of Berbera on the Gulf of Aden, facing Yemen across the narrow Bab al-Mandeb strait.
President Mohamud criticized Tel Aviv’s diplomatic recognition of Somaliland, arguing that no country other than Israel has taken such a step and that local populations in the breakaway territory strongly oppose foreign military footprints. Mohamud further asserted that Israeli strategic ambitions in the region align with expansive geopolitical projects, describing Israel as a destabilizing force that routinely bypasses international law.
The Red Sea chokepoint has already experienced severe maritime disruptions due to attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis against Israel-linked shipping. Mogadishu views foreign entanglements around Somaliland’s coast as an acute hazard that could exacerbate regional fragmentation, compounding the instability already radiating from the civil conflict in Sudan and renewed fighting between Ethiopian federal forces and Tigrayan-led opposition groups.
Trilateral Alignment and Regional Counterweights
In response to mounting external pressures, Somalia, Egypt, and Eritrea have steadily tightened political, economic, and security coordination. The three nations previously convened a trilateral summit in Asmara in October 2024 to reinforce state sovereignty and territorial integrity across the Horn of Africa. These ties were further formalized in January 2025 when Cairo and Mogadishu elevated their bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership.
The upcoming El-Alamein summit is expected to focus heavily on preserving regional stability against the backdrop of Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access. Addis Ababa’s disputed memorandum of understanding with Somaliland for port access, signed in January 2024, remains a core grievance for the Somali federal government, which views the pact as a direct violation of its national sovereignty.
Despite these regional flashpoints, President Mohamud emphasized that the United States remains Mogadishu’s primary partner in counterterrorism operations. He dismissed claims that the al-Qaeda-linked militant group al-Shabab poses an existential threat to major urban centers, insisting that federal forces maintain operational control over key cities.
Diplomatic Stakes and Next Steps
As regional leaders gather in Egypt alongside the African Union Mid-Year Coordination Meeting, the diplomatic architecture of the Horn of Africa faces an unprecedented stress test. The intersection of Red Sea maritime security, bilateral recognition disputes, and Horn of Africa territorial conflicts leaves little room for diplomatic miscalculation.
Observers will monitor whether the El-Alamein summit yields concrete security pacts between Egypt, Somalia, and Eritrea to counter unilateral maneuvers along the Bab al-Mandeb. Meanwhile, Mogadishu’s firm stance signals that any external power seeking a foothold through breakaway territories will face resolute diplomatic and political resistance.