Official Onset Confirmed
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the onset of the 2026/27 El Niño on June 11, 2026. This announcement followed a critical rise in the Niño 3.4 Index, which reached +0.7°C above the long-term average, surpassing the +0.5°C threshold required to trigger the climate phenomenon.
Global Stakes and Intensity
Experts warn that this event could reach ‘strong’ or even ‘extreme’ intensity, potentially rivaling the historic events of 1997/98 and 2015/16. The APEC Climate Center in South Korea has placed the probability of a strong classification at over 90 percent. Climatologists suggest that the combination of this El Niño with a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may exacerbate global weather disruptions, increasing the likelihood of 2026 or 2027 becoming the warmest years on record.
Regional Preparedness
In Southeast Asia, the impacts are already being anticipated. The Philippine National Police (PNP) has begun mobilizing resources to implement strict water conservation measures, following directives from the Department of Environment and Natural Resources. Authorities are preparing for localized water rationing and potential forest fire risks, particularly in Indonesia and Malaysia, as dry conditions are expected to persist through the coming months.