Surging Support in Final Stretch
State Representative Francesca Hong has pulled ahead as the clear frontrunner in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary, according to a survey released Wednesday by Marquette University Law School. The poll, conducted between July 22 and July 27, captures the shifting landscape of a race marked by recent volatility, including the brief withdrawal and subsequent relaunch of Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley’s campaign.
Hong currently commands 38 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters, a 12-point increase from Marquette’s previous survey. Her closest challenger, former Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, trails significantly at 16 percent. Crowley, despite his high-profile relaunch, holds only 7 percent support. State Senator Kelda Roys and former Department of Administration Secretary Joel Brennan remain at the bottom of the field, each polling at 2 percent.
The Impact of Endorsements and Demographics
The poll highlights a disconnect between top-tier endorsements and voter behavior. Despite Governor Tony Evers’ formal endorsement of Crowley, 56 percent of respondents indicated that the move had no impact on their decision. Marquette pollster Charles Franklin noted that while Evers maintains high favorability within the party, his influence does not automatically translate into vote shifts.
Data reveals a distinct generational and ideological divide. Hong draws her strongest support from voters aged 18 to 29 and those identifying as “very liberal.” Conversely, Barnes performs better among voters over the age of 60 and those who describe themselves as moderate or conservative. Notably, the number of undecided voters remains a significant factor, with 34 percent of respondents—disproportionately older voters—stating they have yet to commit to a candidate.
Strategic Stakes Ahead of August 11
The primary contest, scheduled for August 11, arrives at a critical juncture for the Democratic Party. While the wide field of candidates has led to a fragmentation of donor resources and attention, the Republican side has consolidated behind U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany. Tiffany, facing no major GOP primary opposition, has effectively utilized this period to amass a war chest exceeding $8 million.
The Marquette findings align with broader polling trends, including a recent survey by the nonprofit State Navigate, which placed Hong’s support at 44 percent. As the campaign enters its final days, the challenge for all Democratic hopefuls remains the mobilization of the remaining pool of undecided voters, particularly as the party aims to unify behind a nominee to face a well-funded Republican opponent in the general election.