Reaching the 100-mph milestone on a baseball mound was once considered a generational feat, a rare display of physical supremacy reserved for a select few. Today, that barrier has become a routine benchmark. According to an analysis originally published by The New York Times, Major League Baseball’s elite pitchers are continuously pushing the boundaries of throwing velocity, raising urgent questions about the physical limits of the human body and the escalating toll on players’ health.
The Exponential Rise of Triple-Digit Pitches
The evolution of pitching velocity over the last two decades highlights a dramatic shift in how the game is played and evaluated. In 2008, the first year of the pitch-tracking era, the average velocity of a major league four-seam fastball stood at 91.9 mph. By 2022, that average rose to 93.9 mph. In the first half of the 2026 season, it climbed to an unprecedented 94.6 mph.
This upward trajectory is even more pronounced when looking at maximum-effort throws. Throughout the entire 2025 season, starting pitchers threw 726 pitches clocked at 100 mph or faster. In just the first half of the 2026 season, starters had already recorded 1,018 pitches reaching or exceeding that mark. What was once an extraordinary outlier is now a baseline expectation for major league front offices and scouting departments.
The Heavy Biomechanical Cost
The pursuit of velocity, however, is not without severe consequences. The human arm is not naturally designed to withstand the extreme torsional stress required to whip a baseball at triple-digit speeds. This reality has caught up with some of the game’s brightest young stars, most notably Paul Skenes, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner.
Skenes, whose dominant rookie season was defined by a fastball averaging 98.8 mph, has seen his average velocity dip to 96.8 mph. In a recent start, Skenes topped out at 97.9 mph over 4 1/3 innings. While Skenes has publicly downplayed the drop, stating that velocity is not a prerequisite for his success, his performance metrics suggest otherwise. Since July 1, 2026, Skenes has posted a disappointing 5.67 earned run average (ERA) across nine starts.
He is far from alone in experiencing the physical backlash of the velocity chase. Milwaukee Brewers standout Jacob Misiorowski, a 6-foot-7 right-hander who led the majors in the first half of 2026 with 670 pitches registered above 100 mph—including a blistering 105.5 mph delivery—was sidelined before the All-Star break with arm fatigue. Misiorowski had to skip the All-Star Game and the Brewers’ subsequent series, returning only for a restricted four-inning outing on July 20 before showing signs of recovery with a six-inning shutout performance against Atlanta.
A long list of elite pitchers, including Edwin Díaz, Tarik Skubal, Garrett Crochet, Hunter Brown, Hunter Greene, and Brandon Woodruff, have also spent significant time on the injured list due to various arm and elbow ailments, highlighting the systemic nature of the issue.
Searching for the Ultimate Limit
Despite the clear physical risks, the allure of throwing harder remains irresistible to young athletes. Pitchers like 20-year-old Seth Hernandez, selected sixth overall in the 2025 draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates, represent the next wave of talent hoping to find an undiscovered “third gear.” Hernandez, who hit 102.4 mph in spring training against the Detroit Tigers, is actively working on physical conditioning to unlock even more speed as his body matures.
Conversely, others are beginning to accept their personal physical ceilings. Cincinnati Reds rookie Chase Burns, who regularly touched 102 mph in college, noted that maintaining such speeds over a grueling professional season is incredibly difficult. After averaging 98.7 mph on his heater in 2025, Burns’ average sits at 97.6 mph in 2026, a level he feels is more sustainable for his long-term career.
Ultimately, the battle between velocity and longevity will continue to shape the future of Major League Baseball. As training techniques, biomechanical analysis, and physical conditioning reach peak optimization, the ultimate limiting factor remains the anatomical threshold of the human elbow and shoulder.