A New Electoral Battleground
The byelection in the Western Australian seat of Secret Harbour is rapidly evolving from a routine contest into a high-stakes litmus test for the electoral influence of One Nation. As early voting commences in this traditionally Labor-held territory, political strategists are closely monitoring a surprising shift in voter sentiment. While caution is advised given the early stage of polling, an initial exit survey of 120 voters showed half favoring One Nation as their first preference, signaling a potential disruption to established political dynamics.
The seat, which geographically aligns with the federal electorate of Canning—represented by Liberal frontbencher Andrew Hastie—has become a focal point for party leaders. Premier Roger Cook has publicly acknowledged the severity of the challenge, warning that Labor’s historical stronghold in the outer metropolitan area is under significant pressure.
Strategic Ambitions and Federal Implications
For One Nation, a strong performance in Secret Harbour serves a dual purpose: immediate electoral gain and long-term strategic positioning. Party leader Pauline Hanson, bolstered by the support of mining mogul Gina Rinehart, has identified the 2028 federal elections as a primary objective. Specifically, the party is targeting Andrew Hastie, leveraging his involvement in the high-profile defamation case concerning former Victoria Cross recipient Ben Roberts-Smith. Hastie himself has confirmed that campaign director James Ashby is actively coordinating efforts to challenge his position.
Beyond Western Australia, the party is expanding its footprint. Preparations are underway for the November polls in Victoria, where One Nation has deployed a significant advertising budget and strategic planning team. This expansion is part of a broader evolution for the party, which has historically struggled to be perceived as a governing force. Education Minister Jason Clare recently highlighted this shift, noting the need to bolster higher education legislation to safeguard against potential policy shifts should One Nation gain further power.
The Immigration Policy Vacuum
One Nation’s rise is occurring against a backdrop of federal legislative friction. While the Albanese government has achieved successes in gambling reform and the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), it faces mounting criticism over its immigration policy. Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke has struggled to provide clarity on proposed policy timelines, creating a vacuum that One Nation has been quick to exploit.
Despite internal inconsistencies—such as proposing a net migration target of 130,000 while simultaneously advocating for an additional 40,000 temporary workers—the party has successfully captured the national discourse on migration, superannuation, and tobacco excise. By pivoting swiftly on these contentious issues, One Nation is demonstrating a level of policy agility that has forced both the government and the opposition to recalibrate their messaging.