New Prediction Market Frontier
Robinhood has expanded its event contract offerings to include granular, set-by-set betting on professional tennis, with Canadian star Denis Shapovalov’s opening match at the Mifel Tennis Open in Baja California Sur serving as a key showcase. The platform is now quoting odds on individual sets and exact final scores for Shapovalov’s contest against Australian Rinky Hijikata.
Shapovalov, the defending champion of the event, enters the tournament as the eighth seed and currently holds the No. 67 world ranking, while Hijikata sits at No. 96. These new contracts function as cash-settled instruments that pay one dollar per correct prediction, requiring only a funded brokerage account to participate. The integration bypasses the need for separate crypto wallets or specialized exchange logins, significantly lowering the barrier to entry for retail traders.
Institutional Supply Chain
While the interface is branded by Robinhood, the brokerage does not operate the underlying exchange. Instead, the firm aggregates liquidity from specialized providers, including Kalshi, the Interactive Brokers unit ForecastEx, and Rothera—a CFTC-licensed clearinghouse that Robinhood backed in 2025. This multi-source strategy is designed to provide depth across a vast catalog that extends beyond the ATP tour to include minor circuit events in Britain, Spain, and Kazakhstan.
The expansion is a major driver of growth for the brokerage. Robinhood reported trading more than 16 billion event contracts in 2026, a substantial increase from the 12 billion traded throughout all of 2025. Bernstein analysts have responded to this trajectory by lifting their price target for the brokerage to $160, projecting that prediction market revenue could reach $1.7 billion by 2028.
Competitive Pressures
The landscape for event contracts is becoming increasingly competitive. While Kalshi has historically been a primary supplier for Robinhood, the relationship is showing signs of strain. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour recently identified Robinhood as a direct competitor, even as his firm continues to supply the brokerage with data. In response, Robinhood has initiated talks with Crypto.com to carry its contracts, as industry analysts note that Robinhood’s share of Kalshi’s volume is shrinking following the launch of the Rothera exchange.
The regulatory environment also remains a critical factor. Following a November 2025 amendment from the CFTC that allowed for intermediated U.S. access, firms like Polymarket have also sought to expand their reach, filing for approval to open offshore exchanges to American traders in April 2026. Despite this, Robinhood maintains a distinct advantage: a distribution base of over 27 million funded accounts, with more than one million users already active in the event contracts category.