A Diplomatic Pivot in Ankara
As NATO leaders prepare for a pivotal summit in Ankara next week, the focus has shifted toward the deepening personal rapport between U.S. President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. While Trump has maintained a confrontational stance toward many European NATO members, his relationship with the Turkish leader stands as a notable exception, potentially reshaping the dynamics of the 32-member alliance.
Trump, who is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Erdogan on the sidelines of the summit, confirmed his attendance in response to a direct invitation from the Turkish president. “I would not have gone for most people,” Trump stated, emphasizing that his visit is a gesture of respect toward Erdogan. This move marks the first U.S. presidential visit to Turkey since 2015.
The Stakes: Defense Sales and Regional Security
The upcoming summit is shadowed by significant friction regarding defense spending and the U.S. role in global security. Trump has publicly criticized the alliance’s current structure as “ridiculous” and “one-sided,” citing data that shows the U.S. vastly outspending other members. Despite these tensions, the Trump administration has signaled a potential breakthrough in military cooperation with Ankara.
Reports indicate that the State Department has moved to bypass congressional opposition to a $700 million sale of F-110 jet engines, which are intended for Turkey’s domestic KAAN fighter jets. Furthermore, there is ongoing speculation regarding the potential sale of F-35 fighter jets, a program from which Turkey was suspended in 2019 following its acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile defense system. While influential lawmakers, including Sen. Jim Risch, maintain strong opposition to such sales while the S-400 remains in Turkey, the administration continues to explore paths toward reconciliation.
Analysis: A Pattern of Personal Diplomacy
The relationship between Trump and Erdogan reflects a broader pattern in the President’s foreign policy, which often prioritizes direct, leader-to-leader engagement over traditional institutional channels. Analysts at the Brookings Institution and the Washington Institute suggest that this “telephone diplomacy”—which Erdogan noted rarely exceeds 24 hours between calls—allows Ankara to circumvent the diplomatic isolation it faced under the previous U.S. administration.
However, this alignment comes at a time when the broader NATO alliance is struggling to find consensus. European leaders, including German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have been forced to defend their defense commitments as the U.S. threatens to reduce its military presence in Europe. By positioning Turkey as a key partner, Trump is effectively creating a new power center within NATO that challenges the traditional influence of Western European members. The summit in Ankara will likely serve as a litmus test for whether this personal diplomacy can translate into long-term strategic stability or if it will further deepen the fractures within the transatlantic alliance.