A Shift in Voter Sentiment
MONTPELIER, Vt. (Azat TV) – A new Green Mountain State Poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center indicates that five-term Republican Governor Phil Scott is trailing his Democratic challenger, Amanda Janoo, with only six weeks remaining before the November election. According to the data reported by WCAX, Janoo leads the incumbent governor 49% to 43%.
The underlying reporting is available from wcax.com.
This shift represents a notable departure from previous election cycles, during which Scott consistently secured re-election by wide margins, largely by attracting support from moderate Democrats. The current snapshot suggests that Scott’s traditional coalition is fracturing as the political climate grows more polarized.
Factors Influencing the Race
Political analysts attribute the tightening race to a combination of local grievances and national political headwinds. Sean McKinley, project director at the UNH Survey Center, noted that while Scott’s approval rating has seen an uptick among Republicans, his support among Democrats has reached its lowest point since the center began tracking the metric. “For Scott to be able to survive, he certainly has a bit of a hill to climb,” McKinley told WCAX.
Middlebury College political science professor Matt Dickinson highlighted that voter enthusiasm is being driven by opposition to the policies of the Trump administration and national Republican leadership. Furthermore, Dickinson suggested that the governor’s office may be facing consequences for failing to adequately address lingering affordability issues within the state, an area where Republicans had previously made significant inroads.
Campaign Response and Context
The Scott campaign has disputed the poll’s findings, suggesting the survey over-represents Democratic voters. Campaign staff emphasized that the data represents a single moment in time and expressed confidence in their standing. The poll, which surveyed 835 residents between September 17 and 21, carries a 3.3 percentage point margin of error.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, pollsters suggest the race remains fluid. A significant portion of the electorate remains unfamiliar with Janoo, indicating that both candidates have room to influence undecided voters in the coming weeks. Alongside the gubernatorial race, other statewide contests show Democrats with strong leads, including a 14-point margin for former Lt. Gov. Molly Gray in her bid for lieutenant governor and a substantial lead for U.S. House incumbent Becca Balint over Republican Gerald Malloy.