Ahead of the US midterm elections scheduled for November 3, 2026, political tension is rising across the American political landscape, reflected in both prediction markets and statements from state institutions. According to data from the Polymarket platform, the probability of the Democratic Party establishing control over both houses of Congress has reached 51 percent, while the scenario of Republicans retaining control of only the Senate is estimated at 36 percent. Against this backdrop, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine confirmed in an official letter to Senator Elissa Slotkin that the armed forces have no plans to deploy troops to polling stations or interfere in the voting process.
General Caine’s assurances follow concerns raised by Democratic representatives after President Donald Trump’s administration deployed federal forces for immigration enforcement and protest management in several states. Federal law strictly prohibits the deployment of the armed forces at polling places, except in cases of repelling foreign enemies. At the same time, the administration is actively raising the topic of non-citizen voting based on controversial Census Bureau reports, which experts believe could lay the groundwork for legally challenging election results in court later.
A potential Democratic victory in the House of Representatives could fundamentally alter Washington’s political dynamics, returning the issue of presidential impeachment to the agenda. Although Democratic Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries noted that the party is “leaving options open,” other influential lawmakers urge a focus on legislative priorities, given that a two-thirds majority in the Senate is required to remove a president from office. Amid institutional checks and political uncertainty, the upcoming elections serve as a key test not only for control of Congress but also for the limits of US executive power.